833
FXUS65 KRIW 132115
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
315 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rivers will continue to run high due to snowmelt, but most
  have already reached their highest level for the snowmelt
  season, and will be decreasing over the coming week.

- Temperatures continue to run 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
  normals through the day Saturday. Most areas will stay dry.

- Breezy winds are expected on Saturday combined with
  temperatures well above normal, leading to elevated fire
  weather conditions.

- Temperatures begin cooling on Sunday, and below average
  temperatures are expected by Tuesday as the next weather
  system moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This evening, a shortwave trough moving across the Four Corners
region will spread enough mid-level moisture to support isolated
showers and thunderstorms for southern and central Wyoming. The
main threat with these storms will be brief gusty outflow winds
45 to 55 mph. Showers could (20 % chance) linger well into the
day Friday, as the modest supporting lift is slow to exit the
region. Gusty winds would again be the main concern with any
showers on Friday afternoon.

The region remains under the influence of a longwave ridge over
the next few days, which brings warm temperatures about 10 to
15 degrees above normal through Saturday. Sustained winds
increase slightly on Friday, but will still be relatively light
by Wyoming standards. On Saturday the winds become strong and
gusty for most locations, and this combined with the heat and
dry air in place will lead to elevated fire weather conditions.
Thankfully fuels are still relatively moist from spring green-
up.

Despite the warm temperatures and rapid high elevation snowmelt,
most rivers and streams across the region have leveled off, and
many are showing signs of slowly falling. The Bear River in
southwestern Wyoming is one exception, where peak flows look to
occur in the next week or so. The lack of widespread
precipitation through the weekend should allow most other rivers
to continue to slowly decrease their flow rates.

The next large weather system to impact the region will move in
Monday into Tuesday. A majority of the lift with this system
will be over Montana, leaving Wyoming mostly dry. The northern
Wyoming border could (20% chance) see light rainfall during
this timeframe. Other areas will stay mostly dry. Temperatures
moderate to near normals by the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the period.
There is a slight chance of isolated convection (mainly virga
showers) this afternoon; 10% chance at KRKS, KLND, and KRIW; 30%
chance at KCPR. A PROB30 group has been included at KCPR, where the
best chance for thunderstorms exists. A 10% chance of convective
shower activity continues through much of the night at the
aforementioned terminals, but no impacts are expected. Winds will
remain mostly light (gusts less than 20kts), though a gusty
thunderstorm outflow late this afternoon across the southwest or
Wind River Basin cannot be ruled out. Any breezy conditions will
diminish towards sunset and winds will be light through the night,
though will begin to tick back up again Friday morning at several
terminals.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...Hensley