Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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812 FXUS65 KRIW 231632 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1032 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry weather intensifies today and tomorrow. Highs may near 95-100 degrees in parts of the CWA by Sunday. - Afternoon showers today and Monday may create strong gusty outflow winds with little to no rain reaching the surface. - The lack of rainfall and hot/dry weather may create concerning fire weather conditions through the first half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Yesterday saw sunny and warm conditions return to the Cowboy State. This weather will continue and only intensify over the next few days as temperatures increase. While the overall weather looks to remain fairly quiet there are some concerns. The main concern heading into the start of the week will be elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. The weekend comes to an end with hot and dry conditions, as a potent area of high pressure builds back into the region. Today will be hot and breezy, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten due to a shortwave moving to the north of the region. Warm advection will aid in producing some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far. Models are showing parts of Natrona and Johnson Counties along with the Wind River Basin having a (40-70%) chance of seeing 95 or higher temperatures. Highs in parts of the Bighorn Basin on Sunday have a (20-50%) chance of nearing or exceeding the century mark. One thing that may limit the extent of the warming is the possibility of afternoon virga showers developing. Some CAM`s have recently shown showers developing Sunday afternoon but with it being so dry and hot throughout the atmosphere precipitation will struggle to reach the surface. Due to the large difference between dewpoints and temperatures strong gusty outflow winds are possible with any showers. Some CAM`s are showing outflow gusts of 30-40 mph in parts of the southern and central CWA. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will likely develop Sunday and continue through much of the upcoming week. Winds will be breezy at times during the afternoon Sunday with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The combination of these breezy winds, above normal temperatures, and low RH values will create concerns regarding fire development. The warm, dry, and breezy weather continues into Monday. Temperatures will again reach the mid to upper 90s in areas east of the Divide and in the mid to upper 80s west of the Divide. Winds increase on Monday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times across much of the CWA. Virga showers will again be possible during the afternoon with strong gusty outflow winds being the main concern. Critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue on Monday due to the above normal temperatures, low RH values, and gusty winds. Warm and dry weather continues through the first half of the week. Some models indicate the possibility for a potent trough to move through the region by Thursday. This trough looks to push out the area of high pressure that is bringing these warm and dry conditions to the CWA. One thing to monitor over the next few days will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the trough moves into the region by the second half of the week. The setup looks very similar to last Friday where much of the CWA saw showers and thunderstorms move through bringing some much needed rain. PWAT values are looking above normal with this system so some areas may get some much needed rain to end the week. Overall, the next few days are looking hot, dry, and breezy across much of the CWA with intensifying fire weather concerns. Fortunately, there may be some relief to the hot and dry weather to end the week but uncertainty remains high at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1032 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure persists across the area. Wind will become breezy this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 knots at most terminals. While a few isolated showers are possible during this time, mainly east of KRKS, little to no precipitation is expected. The main concern with this activity will be gusty outflow winds gusting over 40 mph. Wind and any showers will subside after sunset, leaving clear skies through Monday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Myers/Hensley