875
FXUS65 KRIW 052227
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
427 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wyoming winds continue through sunset today before
  decreasing.

- Widespread temperatures in the 80s through the next week. Much
  warmer temperatures will continue the seasonal mountain
  snowmelt, with elevated stream and rivers into next week.

- A few showers possible Friday through the weekend, mainly
  targeting the higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Starting to transition more into a summertime pattern as
stronger H5 ridging builds across the western US. This will
continue to push the main storm track farther and farther north
away from the region. The ridging has already started the warmer
temperatures across the state, with today the beginning of a
streak of days reaching into the 80s. As the ridge increases
through this weekend, expect warmer temperatures each
afternoon. While any record highs will be tough to reach (most
areas already have records in the low 90s), temps will still be
5 to 10 degrees above normal into early next week. This period
of very warm temperatures will bring a considerable meltdown of
what`s left of the mountain snowpack. This will bring stream and
river levels higher through the next week, with some lowland
flooding possible in the vicinity of local rivers.

A weak front/trough will sweep by to the north and east on
Friday. While most of the energy will be deflected by the ridge,
there may be enough cooling aloft to bring a bit more
instability. This may lead to some shower activity Friday and
Saturday, mainly focused on the higher elevations. Another wave
looks to sweep northeast along the western edge of the ridge on
Sunday, possibly bringing another round of showers to western
mountains. Models are having trouble resolving the location and
strength of this wave, so confidence is modest at this time.
This introduces increasing uncertainty to the forecast into
early next week, so maintaining the warmer temperatures and a
few afternoon mountain showers remains the ongoing forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF
period. Wind gusts around 25 kt, with gusts of 30 to 35 kt at KCPR,
KRKS, KRIW and KBPI. These winds will decrease by 02Z, becoming 12kt
or less. A notable shift to the north-northeast will also occur for
terminals east of the Divide after 00Z. Thursday will see an
increase high clouds, but otherwise remain dry. Wind gusts
increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon for KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Swanson