Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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082 FXUS61 KRLX 252358 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 758 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1226 PM Wednesday... Key Points: * Flood Watch in effect for southwest VA and McDowell Co. in WV until Thursday evening. A frontal boundary, oriented north to south, remains stationary just west of the area tonight, before becoming diffused on Thursday. Meanwhile, ripples of vorticity, associated with deepening upper level low, will continue to provide necessary forcing to maintain showers and thunderstorms going tonight into Thursday. PWATs values about two standard deviation from the mean, coupled with deep layered shear 45 to 50 knots should promote showers and strong thunderstorms capable to produce very heavy downpours. Hi-res CAMs suggest another batch of convection affecting southern WV, southwest VA this evening, and continuing with lighter rainfall during the overnight hours. These areas have been hit by repetitive showers during the last 24 hours, and additional rainfall may result in flooding problems. Therefore, will issue a Flood Watch for these areas starting this afternoon through Thursday evening. Abundant moisture and cloudiness will keep lows in the mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. The cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Thursday high temperatures in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 213 PM Wednesday... Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of Helene move onshore and northward towards the region, eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Main track of the low still looking to be just to our west. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains and southern zones. In addition, strong gusty winds will develop, owing to tight pressure gradient and strong winds aloft, particularly along ridges. Heaviest QPF will be across the mountains and far southern zones, with parts of WV lowlands looking to potentially suffer from downslope effects/lighter QPF. Could foresee wind and water headlines across far south with future packages. Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage Friday evening into the first part of Saturday as Helene becomes absorbed into upper low across Lower MS Valley, and rotates northwest of the area briefly. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again later Saturday into Sunday as the low slowly drifts east across the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low continues to depart eastward, followed by a front on Tuesday. Cooler and drier weather looks to take hold by mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday... Mixed bag this evening and overnight tonight as rain persists causing MVFR and IFR conditions across the area. For the rest of the evening, mostly MVFR and scattered IFR conditions are expected with mainly MVFR across the lowlands with a better chance for persistent IFR conditions across the mountains into the overnight and early morning hours. Any thunderstorm or heavier shower could briefly reduce visibility to IFR/LIFR conditions. Higher chances for thunderstorms/heavier showers near KBKW and KEKN into tonight. Forecast confidence on an hour by hour basis for visibility and ceilings is low given poor model handling of current conditions and transient nature of thunderstorms/heavier showers moving near TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/26/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L H H L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H L M M M H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in showers and storms throughout the week and into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ033. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...28/RPY