067
FXUS61 KRLX 210614
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
214 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The first day of Autumn opens up with a cold front that may
produce a few afternoon showers along the mountains. Drying out
for the remainder of the weekend, growing unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

The first day of Autumn opens up with temperatures more
applicable with Summer, as many spots in the Tri-State area will
once again reach the low 90s. The culprit warm front
responsible for these unseasonably warm forecast highs will sail
northward this morning to make room for an encroaching
disturbance.

A weak cold front will zip through the forecast area today,
with contributions from a shortwave trough that will encourage
showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain this
afternoon. A narrow ribbon from New York down to Virginia was
placed in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, scraping a
few of our northeast WV counties. Main concerns with stronger
storms later today will be gusty winds and hail.

A dose of measurable rainfall will also be feasible with
activity today, but will be limited to only a few tenths of an
inch for the mountains and foothills of West Virginia.
Certainly not enough to put a dent in the historic drought
underway in the forecast area.

The front will vacate the region by late this evening, with
lingering showers wrapping up around sunset. A decent signal
for river valley fog in the wake of the frontal passage will be
present overnight into Sunday morning. This will be especially
true for areas that receive precipitation today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 952 AM Friday...

An upper-level ridge will briefly move over the area Sunday with the
return of dry, hot, and sunny weather areawide. Increased fire
danger will return Sunday afternoon, especially in the lowlands,
with afternoon minimum RH values expected to range from 30-40%
across the central and northern WV lowlands and portions of
southeast OH. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across much
of the lowlands during the afternoon. Rain chances will slowly
increase from west to east Sunday night as 500-mb heights lower and
the next low pressure system approaches. The best chance of showers
Sunday night into Monday morning will be across southeast Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 952 AM Friday...

A wave of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes Monday with a
trailing cold front moving into the Ohio Valley. This will bring
more moisture into the area with afternoon minimum RH only expected
to drop to 50-60% across the WV lowlands and southeast OH. This
should mitigate the fire threat. In addition, shower chances will
return, with the greatest chances across northern WV and southeast
OH.

The rest of the week looks unsettled with chances of rain just about
each day as waves of mid-level vorticity flow along the approaching
trough. Given our drought situation, this is good news. Another
cutoff upper-level low is expected to develop by the middle of next
week, over the midwest or the Great Lakes, with not much movement
expected through the end of next week. This should bring daily
chances of showers for our region. Confidence is still low at this
time, but there is potential for some beneficial rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

Pockets of FEW to SCT mid-level clouds will mitigate river
valley fog from seeping away from the mountains overnight.
Therefore, continue to portray a similar tale to the previous
forecast with only EKN having the potential for IFR vsbys
through early Saturday morning.

A weak cold front passes through the area on Saturday, bringing
a broken deck of clouds and the chance for mountain
showers/storms in the afternoon. Airfields should remain VFR
during this timeframe, but VCSH/VCTS was included for sites
close to forecast POPs for this afternoon and evening.

In the wake of the front, better potential for fog to ooze down
into the lowlands will transpire. This will be especially true
for areas that receive rain.

Calm winds overnight will shift out of the west/northwest for
the second half of the day Saturday in response to FROPA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Sunday morning with river valley fog in
some of the higher valleys around the area.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK