306
FXUS61 KRLX 251731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Tuesday...

Convection from weakening MCS over the midwest this morning is
moving into the area. So far much of this has remained sub
severe, and bulk of any severe is still anticipated to remain to
our west. Latest SPC outlook for day 1 still has just a few of
our SE Ohio counties in a marginal, and this seems reasonable
given latest trends.

Otherwise, should be a bit of a lull in the activity later this
evening and the first part of tonight, however, convection
looks to reinvigorate overnight across the north out ahead of a
cold front and passing shortwave. This should affect our
northern zones late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Severe
threat with this activity looks to be rather low at this point,
but not a non zero risk, and heavy rain is expected.

After the Wednesday morning activity, showers and storms will
redevelop again during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of
an approaching mid level shortwave trough and the aforementioned
cold front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a
damaging wind threat, possibly a small tornado threat also, and much
of this activity looks to develop towards the end of the near term,
and into the short term period. However, there still remains
uncertainty as to any effects morning convection will play in the
severity of afternoon storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still
differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation.
This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough
energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many
soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air
in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This
indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if
the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating.

Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while
others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain
POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures will return for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday
night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between
the models.

More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind
the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough
remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms, mainly north and along the Ohio River
through 23Z, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds.
Otherwise, most areas should remain precipitation free and VFR
through around 06Z, when the potential for additional showers
and storms will exist, and linger through at least 15Z. These
storms will contain heavy downpours, and produce brief/localized
MVFR/IFR conditions.

After 15Z, should see a brief lull in convective activity, but
storms will redevelop Wednesday evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms could be more
numerous and cover more locations than advertised this
afternoon. In addition, showers and storms overnight may be
greater in coverage than currently advertised.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday
night, and again on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL