268
FXUS61 KRLX 251628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1228 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week
in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and
a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1226 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Flood Watch in effect for southwest VA and McDowell Co. in WV
   until Thursday evening.

A frontal boundary, oriented north to south, remains stationary just
west of the area tonight, before becoming diffused on Thursday.
Meanwhile, ripples of vorticity, associated with deepening upper
level low, will continue to provide necessary forcing to
maintain showers and thunderstorms going tonight into Thursday.
PWATs values about two standard deviation from the mean,
coupled with deep layered shear 45 to 50 knots should promote
showers and strong thunderstorms capable to produce very heavy
downpours. Hi-res CAMs suggest another batch of convection
affecting southern WV, southwest VA this evening, and continuing
with lighter rainfall during the overnight hours. These areas
have been hit by repetitive showers during the last 24 hours,
and additional rainfall may result in flooding problems.
Therefore, will issue a Flood Watch for these areas starting
this afternoon through Thursday evening.

Abundant moisture and cloudiness will keep lows in the mid 60s
across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.
The cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Thursday high
temperatures in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Shower and storm chances continue to peruse the area on Thursday
as moisture streams up the Appalachian mountains. This is in
conglomeration of an upper level low parked to our west and
what is forecast to become Hurricane Helene making landfall
along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Best chances for
precipitation will be south of the I-64 corridor during the day
Thursday, but is expected to stretch farther north on Friday as
Helene lifts up through the Mississippi Valley and becomes
absorbed by the upper level low.

Rain potential splits over the area late Friday night as
Helene`s remnants becomes fully ingested by the other nearby
disturbance. Precipitation becomes more contained to the center
of circulation, progged to be closer to western Kentucky during
this time. A tail of moisture stemmed along a cold front will
shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday night, with this
concentration of showers venturing eastward away from the area.
This places the CWA in a bit of a rain shadow and limiting
shower and storm chances late Friday night and into the weekend.

Latest projected storm total accumulation paints two to three
inches across the southern coalfields and up the mountains and
into parts of the central lowlands with this event. North of
I-64, a crestfallen forecast of only a half an inch to an inch
of rain is expected to fall from Wednesday through Friday in the
midst of our historic drought.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Low end POPs kick off the weekend as the newly enhanced Ohio
Valley disturbance remains fairly stationary to our west. This
will limit much in the way of showers and storms venturing into
the forecast area. The surface low will eventually be nudged
eastward late in the weekend into Monday by advancing high
pressure out west. Most of the nutritious moisture fueled by the
remnants of Helene will have already fallen over areas west of
Central Appalachia, leaving behind only lackluster rainfall
accumulations as the system travels overhead for the start of
next week.

After a weak cold front slips through around midweek, high
pressure looks to take control of the area again late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Most sites will endure some borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs through
the afternoon with the possibility of seeing some thunderstorms.
The rest of the sites will continue to lower in height getting
into MVFR for the mid afternoon with the chance of some
thunderstorm activity. By evening, thunderstorm potential will
wane and those borderline CIGs will still be around until fog
starts to impact most sites for the overnight. The frontal
boundary to our west is quasi-stationary, therefore the
possibility of shower activity overnight will exist going into
tomorrow morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    M    H    H    L    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ033.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JZ