488
FXUS61 KRLX 250629
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today. Showers and thunderstorms with a cold front
Wednesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Seasonably warm today, hotter on Tuesday.
* High pressure brings drier weather through Tuesday.

High pressure builds into the area during the day while a shortwave
departs to the east. The increasing influence of high pressure
will allow for drier conditions across the area, though clouds
are expected to linger into the evening. After a seasonably warm
day, temperatures for tonight should be near to slightly below
normal as lows ease into the 50s to low 60s. Areas of valley fog
may also form as skies clear and winds become calm to light
overnight into early Tuesday morning.

While dry weather is expected to persist for the majority of
the area on Tuesday, showers could eventually seep into
southeast Ohio late in the day as high pressure gradually shifts
east in advance of the next system. Tuesday will be hotter than
today, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s
in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still
differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation.
This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough
energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many
soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air
in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This
indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if
the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating.

Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while
others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain
POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures will return for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday
night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between
the models.

More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind
the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough
remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

High pressure nearby keeping the area dry and mostly clear
through the morning until early afternoon. Most locations have
already decoupled this morning as winds are calm at most
locations. River valley fog is expected to form this morning and
have included MVFR/IFR restrictions at most sites. Models
however are starting to back off on coverage, keeping it
confined to the mountains versus across all of the river
valleys.

VFR takes back over by ~12-13Z this morning under clear skies.
There is a chance for some showers and storms this afternoon
with a passing disturbance, but this looks to remain confined
to southeastern Ohio until tonight into Wednesday morning.

Winds will be mostly calm this morning, picking up  out of the
southwest at a light pace after sunrise. Could be breezy at
times mid-morning with mixing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of fog may
vary form forecast. Showers and thunderstorms could be more
numerous and cover more locations than advertised this
afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday
night, and again on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC