Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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488 FXUS61 KRLX 250629 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 229 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer today. Showers and thunderstorms with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 PM Monday... Key Points: * Seasonably warm today, hotter on Tuesday. * High pressure brings drier weather through Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area during the day while a shortwave departs to the east. The increasing influence of high pressure will allow for drier conditions across the area, though clouds are expected to linger into the evening. After a seasonably warm day, temperatures for tonight should be near to slightly below normal as lows ease into the 50s to low 60s. Areas of valley fog may also form as skies clear and winds become calm to light overnight into early Tuesday morning. While dry weather is expected to persist for the majority of the area on Tuesday, showers could eventually seep into southeast Ohio late in the day as high pressure gradually shifts east in advance of the next system. Tuesday will be hotter than today, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Tuesday... A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation. This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating. Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable temperatures will return for Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 AM Tuesday... With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday, temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again possible, although most of the region will remain dry. A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between the models. More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier solution. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... High pressure nearby keeping the area dry and mostly clear through the morning until early afternoon. Most locations have already decoupled this morning as winds are calm at most locations. River valley fog is expected to form this morning and have included MVFR/IFR restrictions at most sites. Models however are starting to back off on coverage, keeping it confined to the mountains versus across all of the river valleys. VFR takes back over by ~12-13Z this morning under clear skies. There is a chance for some showers and storms this afternoon with a passing disturbance, but this looks to remain confined to southeastern Ohio until tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be mostly calm this morning, picking up out of the southwest at a light pace after sunrise. Could be breezy at times mid-morning with mixing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of fog may vary form forecast. Showers and thunderstorms could be more numerous and cover more locations than advertised this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/25/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night, and again on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...LTC