336
FXUS61 KRLX 250537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More seasonable air and drier weather today. Warmer Tuesday.
Another cold front Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Seasonably warm today, hotter on Tuesday.
* High pressure brings drier weather through Tuesday.

High pressure builds into the area during the day while a shortwave
departs to the east. The increasing influence of high pressure
will allow for drier conditions across the area, though clouds
are expected to linger into the evening. After a seasonably warm
day, temperatures for tonight should be near to slightly below
normal as lows ease into the 50s to low 60s. Areas of valley fog
may also form as skies clear and winds become calm to light
overnight into early Tuesday morning.

While dry weather is expected to persist for the majority of
the area on Tuesday, showers could eventually seep into
southeast Ohio late in the day as high pressure gradually shifts
east in advance of the next system. Tuesday will be hotter than
today, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s
in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

By Wednesday, showers and storms will be on the increase once again,
possibly in multiple rounds, with one round possible in the morning,
and another later in the day as an upper trough and cold front start
to move through the area. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe, and will contain heavy downpours, but much of this will also
depend on the effects any morning convection has on the atmosphere,
and whether we can recover enough for much in the way of severe to
occur. For now, SPC has the area highlighted in a marginal risk.
Frontal boundary should be to the east of the mountains by Thursday
morning. Enough moisture may continue to linger across the mountains
on Thursday for additional showers and storms, but most of the area
should be dry, and cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

High pressure will build into the area for Friday, with mainly dry,
but warmer conditions as upper heights build and southerly flow
increases out ahead of the next system. Showers and storms will
increase across the area by late Saturday into Sunday as a cold
front associated with this system, moving east across Canada,
affects the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

High pressure nearby keeping the area dry and mostly clear
through the morning until early afternoon. Most locations have
already decoupled this morning as winds are calm at most
locations. River valley fog is expected to form this morning and
have included MVFR/IFR restrictions at most sites. Models
however are starting to back off on coverage, keeping it
confined to the mountains versus across all of the river
valleys.

VFR takes back over by ~12-13Z this morning under clear skies.
There is a chance for some showers and storms this afternoon
with a passing disturbance, but this looks to remain confined
to southeastern Ohio until tonight into Wednesday morning.

Winds will be mostly calm this morning, picking up  out of the
southwest at a light pace after sunrise. Could be breezy at
times mid-morning with mixing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of fog may
vary form forecast. Showers and thunderstorms could be more
numerous and cover more locations than advertised this
afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 06/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC