634
FXUS61 KRLX 170707
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated
showers or storms will be possible today and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the
  lowlands this afternoon.
* Heat Advisory begins late this morning.

While high pressure will be present in the upper levels, a surface
front crosses the area early this morning and brings the possibility
of a shower or two as it moves through. Following the departure
of the front, moisture and very warm air are expected to feed
into the area while upper level high pressure remains in place
overhead. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
begin to develop as heat and humidity create unstable conditions
this afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings show an
impressive amount of CAPE, shear should be modest. A few storms
could become strong, with heavy rain also a possibility as
precipitation water values rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range.
Any convective activity will taper off with the loss of daytime
heating, then quieter conditions are expected overnight.

High temperatures are projected to climb into the 90s across much of
the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains. The heat
index will be even higher, with low 100s possible for portions
of the lowlands this afternoon. A Heat Advisory begins late
this morning and then continues beyond the near term period as
a heat wave persists for much of the week.

Heat safety will be important this week, so here are a few tips:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals
* Know the signs of heat illness

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Excessive Heat Watch continues Tuesday through Friday.

For Tuesday, broad upper level high pressure overhead will block any
shortwave energy to move over our area, providing mostly clear
skies through the period. At the surface, high pressure to our
east maintains southwest flow, which continues to bring
moisture and warm air advection to the area on Tuesday. The
moisture, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s, will
produce strong bouyancy. Dewpoints in the lower 70s, PWATs
around 1.8 inches, under high CAPE; low shear environment will
support isolated pulse thunderstorms, some with strong updrafts
Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, locally heavy downpours can be
expected Tuesday afternoon. Models that bring precipitation on
Tuesday are the NAM, RAP13 and GFS. Any convection that manage
to develop will quickly dissipate by sunset. Added PoPs and
thunderstorms to the forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Under mostly clear skies, outside afternoon showers or storms, highs
on Tuesday are expected to rise into the mid 90s. With dewpoints in
the lower 70s, heat index values will reach the triple digits
at some spots across the lowlands. Therefore, an Excessive Heat
Watch remains in effect. It is anticipated that a Heat Advisory
will be required for Tuesday at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

* Excessive Heat Watch continues through Friday.

Persisting high pressure will remain in control Wednesday through
Friday, continuing with dry and hot weather. High pressure
eventually loosens its influence over the area and begins to recede
south next weekend, bringing chance for precipitation over the
weekend.

Daily high temperatures across the lowlands will increase from the
mid 90s on Wednesday, into the upper 90s by Friday. Over the
mountains, highs should be from the mid 80s to low 90s. Meanwhile,
heat index values are expected to climb into the upper 90s to low
100s for the lowlands again Wednesday through Friday afternoon.
Additional Heat headlines will be required through this period.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Calm to light winds are currently present across the area. Some
patchy fog could eventually develop at EKN if winds decouple
before daybreak. Cloud cover may also increase as a warm front
crosses the CWA early this morning. A few showers could
accompany the frontal passage, though confidence is low enough
to leave out mention in the TAFs. Another opportunity for
isolated showers and thunderstorms develops for the afternoon
and evening as heat and moisture increase during the day.

Light winds and VFR conditions are currently anticipated for the
majority of the TAF period, though a few MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS
restrictions could occur 1) within any early morning fog and 2)
in heavier showers or storms during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions
could occur in showers or thunderstorms.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/17/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Monday...

A prolonged heat wave builds across the area this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to
Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Monday, 6/17  |  Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) |
HTS | 93 /100 (1936) | 94 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) |
CKB | 91 / 96 (1967) | 93 / 96 (1936) | 93 / 94 (1994) |
PKB | 92 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) |
BKW | 84 / 93 (1936) | 87 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 90 (1944) |
EKN | 88 / 92 (1936) | 91 / 91 (1994) | 91 / 89 (1905) |
--------------------------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  | Saturday, 6/22
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 95 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) |
HTS | 96 /100 (1931) | 97 / 99 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) |
CKB | 95 / 94 (1931) | 95 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) |
PKB | 97 / 97 (1931) | 97 / 97 (1953) | 96 / 98 (1988) |
BKW | 88 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) | 90 / 92 (1931) |
EKN | 92 / 92 (1931) | 92 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     97     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     95     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     97     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     90     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     92     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...