068
FXUS61 KRLX 020629
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather through Wednesday. Temperatures
warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday.
Semi- stationary cold front expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 229 AM Tuesday...

Broad surface high pressure, centered over the NE states today,
drifts east off the NE coast this evening. This will bring southeast
flow today turning southerly tonight. This return flow will result
in a significant warmup across the region today with highs
reaching the the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging
into the lower 70s higher elevations.

Dry weather continues tonight with temperatures lowering into the
mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Chances for rain and storms return Wednesday into Thursday.

An upper level ridge will be present over the southeastern US while
a low traverses central Canada. High pressure should allow dry
weather to persist into Wednesday morning before ridging
compresses south and a shortwave pivoting around the outskirts
of the upper low steers a cold front towards the Middle Ohio
Valley.

Chances of rain and storms are expected to spread northwest to
southeast across the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as
the front stalls in the vicinity of the northern CWA border.
Isolated strong to severe storms could be possible mainly along
and west of the Ohio River Wednesday evening. With precipitable
water values climbing to 2 or more inches, heavy downpours are
also likely to accompany storms and could eventually lead to
localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas or locations
that are impacted by multiple storms late Wednesday or Thursday.

Temperatures warm above normal on Wednesday, with mid 70s to upper
80s expected for the mountains and 90s in the lowlands. While
still rather warm, clouds and precipitation should keep
Thursday`s highs a few degrees lower than the previous day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled late week into the weekend.
* Temperatures remain near to above normal through early next week.

The long term forecast period starts out with a frontal boundary
lingering just north of the CWA while a low and upper shortwave
trough depart the Central Plains. This system tracks into the Great
Lakes region on Friday, lifts the stalled boundary to the north as a
warm front, and then ushers a cold front across the area this
weekend. High pressure may slide in at the surface early next week,
however, daytime heating and shortwave energy passing overhead could
still support some afternoon showers and storms.

Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal through early
next week, with highs ranging from 80s to 90s in the lowlands and
mid 70s to upper 80s along the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 131 AM Tuesday...

Broad high pressure will keep widespread VFR conditions across most
sites through the period. The exception will be at EKN where
IFR/LIFR dense valley fog will likely develop from 08Z through 12Z.
Widespread VFR conditions will follow after 12Z under light
southeast flow with occasional gusts in the teens, mainly across the
higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ