438
FXUS61 KRLX 021726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Temperatures
warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday.
Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 106 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high
pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday,
mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect
mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy
fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys.

Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in
control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day
with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or
two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds
throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which
could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a
marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West
Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be
mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more
stable atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Showers and thunderstorms return to the for the second half
  of the week.
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across SE
  Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday Night.
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across the
  entire forecast area for Thursday into Thursday evening.


Showers move into the area Wednesday night, especially for the
mid- Ohio Valley and our SE Ohio counties. There remains a bit
of uncertainty on just how far southeast precip may make it by
sunrise, so we only have Chance POPs southeast of the I-79
corridor. However, the entire area looks to see showers and
storms Thursday and Thursday night as the front moves towards
and stalls near or over the CWA. SPC has assessed a Marginal
risk for Wednesday night for the Ohio River and SE Ohio, with
Marginal across the whole area for Thursday. The Wednesday
night risk would likely mainly depend on clusters or a line
with severe winds moving into the area. For Thursday, the
potential for morning showers or at least cloud cover could
limit instability and severe potential. As the front remains
stalled near the area in zonal flow aloft, and disturbances
move along it, showers and storms will remain possible across
the area on Friday and Friday night.

We`ll likely remain near or a bit above normal on high temps
for Thursday and Friday, but that may be dependent on precip
coverage and cloud cover. With the expected humidity and
dewpoints, overnight lows will remain above normal, in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

The previously mentioned stalled front will gain some steam late
Thursday, pulling off to the north and subsequently taking PoPs
with it. Another cold front looks to swing down with a low
pressure center that will drop out of Canada into the upper
midwest/Great Lakes area. In turn, the start of the weekend
looks unsettled, but a dry period may emerge from Sunday into
Monday with high pressure.

Temperatures look to remain hot and above the seasonable normal
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 101 PM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the 18Z TAF
period for most locations, but the sheltered mountain valleys
may see some IFR dense fog overnight, mainly from 6-12Z
Wednesday. IFR fog has been included at KEKN during this
timeframe.

Winds will remain out of the southeast for the remainder of the
day, with occasional gusts to 20 kts at some terminals. Winds
will gradually diminish overnight for most locations, but KBKW
can still see some occasional gusts 15-20 kts overnight. Winds
will then become more south-southwesterly Wednesday, becoming
gusty at times during the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing overnight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JMC