797
FXUS61 KRLX 182130
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
530 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat
wave continues throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 525 PM Tuesday...

Made minor tweaks to temperatures and PoPs throughout the
evening to represent the latest trends. Overall, the general
theme continues to be isolated showers/storms into early
tonight, a few of which could be on the strong side with gusty
winds. Convection that initiated via anabatic forced ascent
earlier today has/is gradually drifting northwest via weak mean
layer low-level flow from the southeast. Expect this general
trend to continue throughout the evening. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.

As of 1239 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to expand
across the area through Wednesday, creating very hot conditions
across the region, and a continuation of a heat advisory for all
counties west of the mountains. Showers and storms will fire again
during peak heating hours today. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with a wind/downburst threat. Similar to yesterday,
high instability/cape, along with weak shear, high PW values, with
storms slow to move and containing heavy downpours, along with that
strong wind/downburst potential. SPC has expanded the marginal risk
for severe across most of the CWA west of the mountains.

Otherwise, as the high continues to expand westward, flow will
gradually continue to become more southeasterly, with somewhat less
humid air taking hold for Wednesday. Not really expecting apparent
temperatures to reach advisory criteria on Wednesday, but with
temperatures still expected to reach into the mid 90s, the heat
headlines will remain. In addition, with more stable conditions
expected to be in place on Wednesday, a dry forecast was maintained
for now, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely
ruled out either.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Tuesday...

Upper ridge pattern courtesy of a rather strong area of high
pressure to our east extending from Bermuda/Eastern Atlantic. As
a result, hot and dry temperatures amid the heat wave will
continue into the short term period.

Temperatures Thursday look to be in the low to mid 90s for much
of the area, with upper 70s to upper 80s being common across the
mountains. Humidity looks to back off some in the afternoon
allowing for less hot heat indices in comparison to what has
been observed. While heat indices look to be below 100 degrees,
they will still be high with mid to upper 90s expected for the
warmest locations in our forecast area. Lows both Wednesday
night and Thursday night, will range from the 60s to upper 70s
depending on elevation. This provides some relief, but with
muggy conditions expected each night it will not feel as though
there is improvement.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Strong Bermuda High Pressure system will still influence
temperatures into the weekend, keeping them well above normal.
The hottest temperatures will be observed Friday and Saturday
with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands each day;
80s in the mountains. A few locations in the low-lying river
valleys, along the Ohio River and across portions of SE Ohio
are forecasted to reach 100. Heat indices will still be
oppressive, even with humidity values lessening some as the week
goes on.

The ridge pattern looks to recede Saturday night into Sunday as
a cold front approaches from the west. That said, PoPs also
increase from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as this
front approaches and a trough drops out of the north Sunday into
Monday. Showers and some thunderstorms are possible Sunday into
Monday due to this feature, but kept only chance PoPs for now
until confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Isolated showers and storms through 03Z, with brief MVFR
conditions in heavy downpours. Storms will also have the
potential for strong/damaging wind gusts. After 03Z, expect bulk
of convection to dissipate with VFR conditions. However, patchy
IFR valley fog is expected in favored river valleys, mainly in
deeper mountain valleys generally 08-12Z, with a return of VFR
conditions with light surface winds after 12Z Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur in
showers/storms today. Fog tonight may be more widespread than
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this
week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to
Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | 94 / 99 (1931) |
HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) | 93 /100 (1931) |
CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 93 / 94 (1994) | 93 / 94 (1931) |
PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) | 95 / 97 (1931) |
BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 90 (1944) | 87 / 92 (1931) |
EKN | 91 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 90 / 92 (1931) |
--------------------------------------------------------
       Friday, 6/21  | Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 97 /105 (1931) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 99 / 99 (1953) | 99 / 98 (1988) | 97 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 96 / 98 (1953) | 96 / 97 (1923) | 94 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 97 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 93 / 92 (1953) | 94 / 93 (1923) | 91 / 89 (1899) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus
the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     91     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     94     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...SL
CLIMATE...GW