489
FXUS61 KRLX 190626
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits northeast tonight, allowing a few
rain showers or storms to develop this afternoon. Dry and quiet
weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday

Weak surface high pressure shifting toward the area from the
north will not be enough to hold off any chances for shower
and/or thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Around 2000 J/kg
of CAPE will support a few thunderstorms just as yesterday,
however the potential should only be confined to mainly the
higher elevations, but we cannot rule out a few rogue
showers/storms across the lowlands mainly along the Ohio River
and east of there.

Once the afternoon Cu field scatters out by late afternoon
chances of any activity will diminish along with most cloud
coverage for the early evening as upper level ridging moves in
from the west. A quiet night will follow with very weak surface
flow and mostly clear skies which will cause for another
potential day for dense fog, especially across the mountain
valleys.

With plenty of breaks in cloud coverage today temperatures will
be allowed to climb to above seasonable, sort of like
yesterday, but not expecting anywhere to reach above the 80`s
with the mountains staying in the 70`s and 60`s for the peaks
and ridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Patchy, dense fog will be likely across the area Thursday night/Friday
morning as the low pressure center (remnants of Extratropical
Cyclone Eight) continues to move off to the northeast as a semi
open-wave feature. Clearing skies and a previous day`s rainfall
will allow decent fog coverage across the river valleys. The
rest of Friday looks to showcase dry and warm weather as high
pressure shoves its way into the area.

Clear skies will provide the warmest temperatures of the week.
The lowlands will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s, while
the mountains will see temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s.
Dry relative humidity values in the upper 20s and lower 30s are
forecasted across the lowlands in the afternoon which would be
concern for fire weather, however northwest winds look to be
light enough to mitigate the threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

This Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night): Drier weather
continues with stout dome of high pressure over Texas forcing a
ridge over the area. A few shortwave disturbances are
forecasted to move through the ridge pattern, but only really
looking at transient cloud cover from these. There is a slight
chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the
higher elevations of the northeastern mountains, but confidence
is low in this occurring.

Temperatures will be very warm to hot with the lowlands seeing
upper 80s to lower 90s each day; while the mountains will stay
in the 70s to the low 80s. Relative humidity percentages look
dry each afternoon with minimum values in the upper 20s and
lower 30s forecasted for the warmest areas. Winds will be light
however, so fire weather headlines do not look likely at this
time.

Next Week (Monday through Wednesday): Chances for rain will
gradually increase ahead of a low pressure system in the
Midwest, though only allowed for chance PoPs as some uncertainty
still remains. Some energy looks to arrive Monday afternoon and
diurnal heating could lead to some showers and thunderstorms.
Highest chances look to be Tuesday afternoon onward as the low
swings off into Canada and forces a strong trough across the
area by Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be the warmest on Monday with low to high 80s
expected across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will gradually lessen back to around normal going
into midweek with upper 70s and lower 80s being common on
Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on RH values, but currently
they are forecasted to remain above concern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Models have hit hard on dense fog this morning covering most of
the area. After full analysis went ahead and elected to add fog
into all the sites except for BKW who will likely endure a low
MVFR deck into the afternoon, therefore deterring fog
formation. The other sites may not be so lucky as mostly clear
skies and calm wind will allow for some patchy fog to develop
which may become dense at times. Any fog will lift and scatter
out by 13-14Z. An afternoon Cu deck may develop today but will
likely scatter out quickly by the late afternoon becoming mostly
clear by the evening. High pressure builds in from the north
but there will remain some chances for showers and/or
thunderstorms mainly along the mountains possibly affecting
BKW/EKN during the mid afternoon, but the threat will quickly
diminish by the late afternoon. Any IFR/MVFR CIGs will lift and
scatter out by 14-17Z. For the overnight, expect potential for
more dense fog as the same conditions will be in place,
especially across the mountain (eastern) sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low into early morning. High today.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and/or dense fog formation may
vary from forecast overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 09/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...

IFR possible in low stratus or fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ