115
FXUS61 KRLX 181643
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1243 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain
showers and unsettled weather across the area through Thursday.
Dry and quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM Wednesday...

Sent a quick update to adjust down sky grids per latest
satellite imagery showing broken to scattered skies over some
portions of the area. Also, adjusted down hourly temperatures
as they were slow to increase due to abundant cloudiness. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Remnants of the quasi-tropical low pressure system #8 will
meander about just south of our area inching toward the
Atlantic. The parent upper level closed low will drive further
north than the surface low and station itself right overhead of
the area. This feature will keep slightly unsettled weather
across much of the area today but will wane by this early
evening.

Less cloud coverage by the afternoon will allow temperatures to
exceed slightly higher than yesterday with most of the lowlands
potentially surpassing the 80 degree mark with the higher
elevations right around the mid 70`s and slightly cooler along
the mountains. East-southeasterly flow will provide some
potential activity along the mountains and east from there with
the highest chances for a shower and possible storm this mid
afternoon. The rest of the area will struggle to get any kind
of rain amounts due to downsloping from boundary layer flow
drying out the lowlands somewhat.

Sufficient CAPE, especially during the afternoon when clouds
start to break up a bit, will allow for the potential of
thunderstorm activity but elected to have it only diurnal. This
equated to cutting probability off right in the early evening
and any activity should only be confined to the mountains and
will likely be very isolated in nature. The upper low turns into
an open wave and shifts off toward the northeast by the
overnight hours into early morning quieting down shower activity
going into the morning with upper level ridging moving in from
the west during the next period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

A decaying low pressure system continues to lose its influence
on the area as it drifts away. Showers should be confined to
areas in and near the mountains Thursday, with the mid/upper-
level component of the system nearby to the east. Breaks of sun
should allow enough diurnal destabilization for an afternoon
mountain thunderstorm as well. With precipitation having become
diurnally driven, there is a quick shutoff of PoPs on sunset
Thursday evening.

A dearth of cloud and wind Thursday night will allow areas of
fog to form, particularly in areas lucky enough to get rain.

High pressure wedging in from the northeast beneath mid/upper-
level northwest flow will provide dry weather Friday, with fog
possible again Friday night.

Less cloud and wind allow high temperatures to climb above
normal, while lows settle to about normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

This Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night): Drier weather
continues with stout dome of high pressure over Texas forcing a
ridge over the area. A few shortwave disturbances are
forecasted to move through the ridge pattern, but only really
looking at transient cloud cover from these. There is a slight
chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the
higher elevations of the northeastern mountains, but confidence
is low in this occurring.

Temperatures will be very warm to hot with the lowlands seeing
upper 80s to lower 90s each day; while the mountains will stay
in the 70s to the low 80s. Relative humidity percentages look
dry each afternoon with minimum values in the upper 20s and
lower 30s forecasted for the warmest areas. Winds will be light
however, so fire weather headlines do not look likely at this
time.

Next Week (Monday through Wednesday): Chances for rain will
gradually increase ahead of a low pressure system in the
Midwest, though only allowed for chance PoPs as some uncertainty
still remains. Some energy looks to arrive Monday afternoon and
diurnal heating could lead to some showers and thunderstorms.
Highest chances look to be Tuesday afternoon onward as the low
swings off into Canada and forces a strong trough across the
area by Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will be the warmest on Monday with low to high 80s
expected across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will gradually lessen back to around normal going
into midweek with upper 70s and lower 80s being common on
Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on RH values, but currently
they are forecasted to remain above concern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

MVFR cloud decks are filtering in affecting BKW today. This
will be the theme for today while through the afternoon most
sites may see a MVFR deck at times or for most of the time for
BKW, but it should not last long as clouds will continue to
lift by mid afternoon and scatter out by the late
afternoon/early evening. VFR should be back in control by the
late afternoon, very early evening at the latest.

During the afternoon shower potential will exist for mainly the
mountain sites and the western sites may not see much if any
activity besides a lone isolated shower possibly. Any showers
will be light in nature and should not take down VIS too much,
if any. The chances for shower and thunderstorm activity are
very low and kept little mention of thunderstorms at EKN/BKW
since they would be very isolated and even lower in
probability.

Overnight confidence on fog forming is very low even though
guidance has the entire area getting socked in with low stratus
and dense fog. Thinking just enough northeasterly flow, cloud
coverage and how dry we still are from not getting much rain and
not expecting much today, if any for much of the area that fog
formation may be deterred so left out restrictions as of now.
The next shifts may have to reevaluate with newer guidance to
see if the fog is possible or not.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium today. Low overnight/morning.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lower cloud decks could sneak into the
mountain sites such as EKN/BKW that would lower their flight
category to IFR or lower. Fog formation is uncertain for
tomorrow morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ