095
FXUS61 KRLX 181637
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1237 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat
wave continues throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 AM Tuesday...
No changes necessary to forecast.


As of 600 AM Tuesday...

The near term forecast is generally on track this morning, with
no significant changes needed at this time.

As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Hot, with potential for isolated strong storms and locally heavy
  rain this afternoon and evening.
* Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are gradually diminishing in
coverage while areas of fog begin to form early this morning. Any
fog that does develop should disperse around sunrise.

In the upper levels, high pressure will be in control over much of
the eastern US both today and tonight. Beneath this high, hot
daytime temperatures and humidity will again lead to unstable
conditions and the potential for showers and storms during the day.
Much like yesterday, model soundings show strong CAPE, weak shear,
and precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range during the
afternoon and evening hours. In this environment, isolated storms
could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Much of the
area resides in a general thunderstorm risk, though a marginal risk
of severe weather has been introduced for a portion of southeast
Ohio. Shower and storm activity should lessen tonight.

High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s in the lowlands
this afternoon, while the mountains should range from mid 70s to low
90s. A couple of climate sites could come within a few degrees of
their record highs (see climate discussion below). A Heat
Advisory also remains in effect as a combination of heat and
humidity are projected to make it feel more like upper 90s to
low 100s in the lowlands this afternoon. Tonight will be warm,
with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands
and low to mid 60s in the mountains.

Heat safety tips:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals
* Know the signs of heat illness

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
over the area for the middle of the week, keeping the CWA hot
and dry. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid-90s, with
most locations a few degrees hotter on Thursday. Deepening dry
air aloft will mix down during this period, and likely will help
keep afternoon heat index values under 100F. However, with the
expectation for overnight lows around or a bit above 70F each
night, the heat stress will continue to compound across the area
and the Advisory will remain in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Strong Bermuda High Pressure system will still influence
temperatures into the weekend, keeping them well above normal.
The hottest temperatures will be observed Friday and Saturday
with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands each day;
80s in the mountains. A few locations in the low-lying river
valleys, along the Ohio River and across portions of SE Ohio
are forecasted to reach 100. Heat indices will still be
oppressive, even with humidity values lessening some as the week
goes on.

The ridge pattern looks to recede Saturday night into Sunday as
a cold front approaches from the west. That said, PoPs also
increase from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as this
front approaches and a trough drops out of the north Sunday into
Monday. Showers and some thunderstorms are possible Sunday into
Monday due to this feature, but kept only chance PoPs for now
until confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

VFR will return to all terminals once fog dissipates after sunrise.
While VFR is expected for most of the day, brief reductions in
visibility to MVFR/IFR could occur in isolated showers and storms
that develop this afternoon and evening. Activity should lessen
overnight, then at least partial clearing and calm winds may allow
fog to develop again overnight.

Strong, gusty winds could occur in today`s storms. Otherwise,
south to southeast flow will be light during the day and then
calm to light overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur in
showers/storms today. Fog tonight may be more widespread than
currently forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JLB