305
FXUS61 KRLX 171748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
148 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain
showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek.
Mainly dry/quiet weather comes back Friday through weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

A low pressure system will meander over the Carolinas for the next
couple of days, while it continues to weaken and move east, off the
Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, periods of light
rain showers, away from its center, will spread across the area
tonight and Wednesday. Some light rain main sneak into the lowlands
from time to time. However, rainfall accumulations will be minimal,
with localized 0.25 inches across the higher terrain with lesser
amounts elsewhere.

Instability looks marginal for Wednesday under abundant cloudiness
and cool temperatures. Models are not handling well light
precipitation with this system. Therefore, will keep slight chance
PoPs across the lowlands, and chance PoPs along the eastern
mountains. Also, believe guidance is overforecasting thunder.
Removed thunder from forecast due to the lack of a kicker for
Wednesday.

High humidity will keep tonight`s lows ranging from the lower 60s
across the lowlands, into the mid 50s northeast mountains. Clouds
and cooling showers will suppress afternoon heating, providing about
normal temperatures on Wednesday. Used the most representative NBM
50th percentile for temperatures and dewpoints through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

A stacked, occluded low pressure system south of the area
Wednesday morning fills as it drifts slowly east away from the
area Wednesday through Thursday night. Showers are most likely
in and near the mountains Wednesday, with the least chance out
over the middle Ohio Valley. While there will still be enough
moisture in the column for a heavier shower here and there, most
of the rain will be light, barely enough to help ease fire
concerns, let alone put any dent in our drought. If anything,
the higher humidity alone will help with the former.

There may be enough heating and destabilization for a
thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon, and shower coverage will
become more diurnally driven as the system weakens and drifts
away through Thursday night. Most of the area will dry out
Wednesday night, followed by a diurnal uptick in the chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, mainly east of
the Ohio River, before promptly drying out again Thursday night.

Temperatures will average close to normal, but the diurnal
range will widen a bit with some decease in cloud.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

High pressure nudges in on Friday reintroducing drier weather,
mostly clear skies and much warmer temperatures. This trend
will last through the weekend with mid to high 80s to around 90
across the lowlands each day; upper 60s to lower 80s in the
mountains.

RH percentages could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s
across a bulk of the territory both Friday through Sunday.
Winds look light enough to mitigate fire weather headlines
though.

Rain chances return possibly on Monday with a low pressure
system approaching from the west allowing for slight chances of
showers across the area by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will
also be about 3-5 degrees less warm, but still above normal. RH
values look to recover as well on Monday, most locations are
forecasted to get back into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 137 PM Tuesday...

Conditions will continue to slowly deteriorate as moisture and
passing showers fill the column this evening and the rest of tonight.
VFR conditions at PKB, CKB, and HTS will become MVFR under light
rain. MVFR conditions currently at EKN, CRW and BKW will become
IFR/LIFR overnight tonight. Showers will slowly decrease in
intensity and coverage during the overnight hours, but still few
showers will be possible Wednesday morning.

Areas of dense fog or low stratus may develop across the higher
elevations tonight into Wednesday morning, lasting at least
through 15Z. Then, conditions may improve to VFR/MVFR Wednesday
outside showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extend of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions
may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ