Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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773 FXUS61 KRLX 161742 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 142 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather, and elevated fire danger, continues today under strong high pressure. An area of low pressure off the Atlantic coast brings the chance for beneficial rain tonight and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... A surface high pressure, which has been producing dry weather conditions for the past several days, will retreat northeast tonight. This will allow for the remnants of tropical cyclone #8 to move from the east against the eastern mountains through Tuesday. Expect an increase in high to mid level clouds and light showers mainly along the eastern mountains tonight into Tuesday. Any shower that survives the eastern mountains will remain light across the lowlands tonight into Tuesday. Clouds will lower into low stratus across and near the mountains tonight and at least Tuesday morning. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains. However, temperatures may differ due to cloud cover. Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will provide near normal highs for Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 103 PM Monday... Key Points: * Rounds of showers are expected Wednesday, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the drought. * High relative humidity values expected Wednesday and Thursday will mitigate any fire weather concerns. Models are projecting that the remnants of what is currently "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight" will be centered somewhere near the western NC/SC border Wednesday morning with very little movement throughout the day Wednesday. This will bring rounds of showers into portions of the area Wednesday. The rain will be beneficial, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the drought. Relative humidity values will range from 70-80%, which will mitigate any fire weather issues for a brief time. High temperatures Wednesday will remain slightly below average due to the increased cloud coverage. Models are coming into better agreement for later this week, and most members are showing the remnant low weakening and tracking northeast along the Appalachian mountains Thursday. Isolated showers remain possible Thursday, but chances will be lower as dry air spills into the area from the north. Temperatures will be closer to average for the middle of September. We also expect more breaks in the clouds by the afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast and mid-level dry air approaches from the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 104 PM Monday... Key Point: * Went with a warm and dry forecast for this weekend, but confidence is low at this time. * Fire threat may increase again this weekend. Models are showing low pressure centered somewhere over the Northeast Friday, but beyond Friday, models diverge and the overall pattern becomes more uncertain. Latest runs of the GFS and Canadian models show low pressure pushing out to sea and another upper-level ridge building into the Ohio Valley this weekend, while latest runs of the ECMWF instead show the closed upper-level low lingering over the East Coast to finish off the weekend. We suspect the ECMWF may be an outlier and went with a warm, dry forecast for this weekend, but confidence is low at this time. Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 30-40% range Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons across parts of the lowlands. This could lead to an increased threat of fires once again if the dry forecast holds this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Despite of broken high level clouds, widespread VFR conditions will prevail at least through midnight, before abundant moisture from remnants of tropical cyclone #8 reaches the eastern mountains overnight tonight. Shower activity is expected to diminish in intensity and coverage as it reaches our easternmost counties. However, ceilings may deteriorate to MVFR/IFR under east to southeast flow mainly across and near the mountains to affect BKW later tonight and Tuesday. MVFR ceilings are expected across the lowlands on Tuesday, gradually lifting into VFR by Tuesday 18Z. Guidance shows the potential for LLWS at BKW during the overnight hours, as winds aloft increase to 40 knots. Coded LLWS from 06-11Z Tuesday at BKW. LLWS may remain at higher altitudes across the lowlands, where can be omitted in TAF issuance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible at and near the central and southern mountains to affect BKW Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 405 AM Monday... Dry weather persists at least through the afternoon. Very dry air aloft will mix down to the surface during daytime mixing hours today. Minimum relative humidity values expected into the 20 to 30 percent range across the lower elevations, with slightly higher values in the higher terrain. Easterly winds will continue to gust to between 15 and 25 mph at times across the ridges. Approaching clouds from the east-southeast may help to mitigate such a rise in afternoon high temperatures today. The next potential chance for rain is Tuesday into Thursday in association with a low pressure system originating in the Atlantic, and then any potential lingering tropical moisture associated with it. Confidence in amount and placement of precipitation is low at this time given model spread. The best chance of beneficial rainfall will be along and east of the higher terrain, but some beneficial rainfall farther west cannot be ruled out. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...ARJ FIRE WEATHER...JZ/JMC