931
FXUS61 KRLX 160754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
354 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather, and elevated fire danger, continues today under
strong high pressure. An area of low pressure off the Atlantic
coast brings the next chance of rain mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Light easterly flow today picking up slightly by the afternoon
with occasional gusty conditions expected along the higher
terrain. Very dry conditions in the low levels courtesy of high
pressure anchored to our north will likely mix down and keep the
area dry and relatively cloud free other than mid to high
clouds coming in off of the tropical system along the Atlantic
coast. The afternoon mixing will drop RH values down into the
20s and 30s across the lowlands with slightly higher values
along the mountains, however the mountains will have stronger
gustier conditions.

With the anticipation of a fairly solid deck of mid to high
clouds spreading across from east to west throughout the area
by this afternoon will likely suppress some daytime heating,
therefore elected to use guidance with lower temperatures
keeping temperatures slightly below central guidance which
equated to a lot of the area not forecast to reach the 80
degree mark. Areas along and west of the Ohio will likely see
higher temperatures due to having the longest time without
dense cloud coverage.

Slight chances for showers will appear in the forecast for
the afternoon across southeastern WV and these chances will
continue to spread inward and toward the northwest into the
evening, eventually making it all the way across the area by
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

The remnants of a potentially tropical system bring some much
needed rain this period, but uncertainty persists as to the
amounts and distribution of the rain, owing to the track of the
system, and how much moisture is able to spell over the central
Appalachians, and back into the middle Ohio Valley.

The system will lumber northwestward across the Carolinas and
into the Appalachians before dissipating. This will keep most
of the area in downslope flow at least up through the mid levels
for most of the time. As such, the highest rainfall amounts
will be in the mountains, and along the eastern slopes thereof.
Even there, total forecast amounts are in the two thirds of an
inch to one inch range, with a half inch or less farther west,
even under a quarter of an inc over the middle Ohio valley. The
DESI probability for at least a tenth of an inch rainfall, or
wetting rain, ranges from around 90 percent in the mountains,
to around 50 percent over the middle Ohio Valley. The first band
of rain is likely to be rotating into the area from the east
first thing Tuesday morning, with additional bands to follow.
The rainfall will become less organized with time, with
decreasing coverage and amounts.

PW values will range from 1.5-1.75 inches much of the time, so
rain can be occasionally heavy. However, with such dry
antecedent conditions, and little if any instability, hydrology
issues are not anticipated. Come Wednesday afternoon, we will
likely be able to muster narrow CAPE beneath the swirling
mid/upper-level low, so thunderstorms are possible, but will not
be organized.

The clouds will limit diurnal temperature ranges, with highs
near to a little below normal, and lows near to a little above.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

Shower coverage will decrease further on Thursday as the
mid/upper level system starts to pull away to the east,
although afternoon thunderstorms are possible given a little
thicker CAPE. Ridging surface and aloft will then allow for a
return of mainly dry weather Thursday night through the weekend,
although a weak, residual mid/upper-level low may be left
behind over the southeastern states, in a Rex block with the
mid/upper-level high over the northeastern states.

The drier weather will allow diurnal temperature ranges to open
up again, with highs climbing back above normal, and lows still
near to a little below. Lowland highs will generally be in the
mid 80s, with afternoon dew points settling into the 50s.
Afternoon relative humidity percentages may settle into the
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

For this TAF period expecting VFR to dominate. Flow will be
easterly at around 5KT across the area with stronger flow along
the mountains particularly at BKW where gusts up to 20KT can be
expected during the day. That site will endure some llws this
evening temporarily until surface winds pick back up. Mainly
just high clouds today spreading across the sky which will
become likely overcast by this late afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 09/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Dry weather persists at least through the afternoon.

Very dry air aloft will mix down to the surface during daytime
mixing hours today. Minimum relative humidity values expected
into the 20 to 30 percent range across the lower elevations,
with slightly higher values in the higher terrain. Easterly
winds will continue to gust to between 15 and 25 mph at times
across the ridges. Approaching clouds from the east-southeast
may help to mitigate such a rise in afternoon high temperatures
today.

The next potential chance for rain is Tuesday into Thursday in
association with a low pressure system originating in the
Atlantic, and then any potential lingering tropical moisture
associated with it. Confidence in placement of precipitation is
low at this time given model spread. The best chance of
beneficial rainfall will be along and east of the higher
terrain, but can`t rule out some beneficial rainfall farther
west.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JZ

FIRE WEATHER...TRM/JZ