994
FXUS61 KRLX 201718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
118 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Friday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Bulk of any convective activity
today should largely be confined to the mountains, but a better
chance will exist on Friday, with a slight uptick in instability
and moisture expected. As with previous days, bulk of any
convection that is able to get going will dissipate with loss of
heating, and storms will be slow to move, and contain brief
heavy downpours.

After some patchy valley fog Friday morning, temperatures Friday
afternoon will tick a few degrees higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 113 PM Thursday...

The hot and humid weather will continue on Saturday as the upper-
level ridge remains over the East. Expect air temperatures to reach
the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the mountains. With dew point temperatures expected to be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will once again `feel like` the lower
100s for many. The chance of an isolated pop-up shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the afternoon as the heat
bubbles up.

Sunday will be another hot day, but perhaps not as hot as Saturday.
High clouds will roll in from the northwest Sunday morning as a cold
front slowly approaches from the Midwest and Great Lakes. More
clouds than sun is expected by the afternoon, and most places will
see chances of thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
The cold front will likely swing through overnight Sunday night,
with precipitation chances increasing to 50-70% areawide. Heavy
downpours are possible, as PWATS are projected to be anywhere from
1.5-2.0 inches areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 113 PM Thursday...

In the wake of the cold front, Monday will finally be a break from
the intense heat. Many of the lowlands spots will see highs in the
upper 80s with slightly lower humidity, thanks to a northwest wind
in a postfrontal airmass. Unfortunately, this isn`t going to last
very long because models are showing another ridge building in from
the west by Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rebounding into
the middle 90s across the lowlands again. Chances of rain may return
again next Wednesday as another front approaches from the west. Next
Thursday is expected to be cooler again in the wake of a front.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 117 PM Thursday...

Mainly VFR with light winds during the period. An isolated
shower or storm with brief MVFR conditions is possible however across
far northern southeast Ohio and the northern mountains through
sunset. Otherwise, patchy river valley fog will develop again,
mainly in deeper/favored river valleys, with brief MVFR/IFR or
worse conditions, particularly at KEKN. Any fog will dissipate
after 12Z for a return of VFR conditions with light winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today and Friday. Low for fog
tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of fog tonight may vary from
the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SL