358
FXUS61 KRLX 190720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A heat wave continues throughout the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1105 PM Tuesday...

Made minor updates to overnight temperatures, but otherwise, the
forecast remains on track, with just a few isolated showers/storms
left across northern portions of the CWA.

As of 525 PM Tuesday...

Made minor tweaks to temperatures and PoPs throughout the
evening to represent the latest trends. Overall, the general
theme continues to be isolated showers/storms into early
tonight, a few of which could be on the strong side with gusty
winds. Convection that initiated via anabatic forced ascent
earlier today has/is gradually drifting northwest via weak mean
layer low-level flow from the southeast. Expect this general
trend to continue throughout the evening. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.

As of 1239 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to expand
across the area through Wednesday, creating very hot conditions
across the region, and a continuation of a heat advisory for all
counties west of the mountains. Showers and storms will fire again
during peak heating hours today. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with a wind/downburst threat. Similar to yesterday,
high instability/cape, along with weak shear, high PW values, with
storms slow to move and containing heavy downpours, along with that
strong wind/downburst potential. SPC has expanded the marginal risk
for severe across most of the CWA west of the mountains.

Otherwise, as the high continues to expand westward, flow will
gradually continue to become more southeasterly, with somewhat less
humid air taking hold for Wednesday. Not really expecting apparent
temperatures to reach advisory criteria on Wednesday, but with
temperatures still expected to reach into the mid 90s, the heat
headlines will remain. In addition, with more stable conditions
expected to be in place on Wednesday, a dry forecast was maintained
for now, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely
ruled out either.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...

The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will remain
over the area through the end of the week, keeping the CWA hot
and dry for the most part. Highs on Thursday will be in the
mid-90s for most lower elevation locations, though dry air
mixing down will likely help keep heat index values under 100F.
Much of the area will be a few degrees hotter for Friday and
Saturday, and heat index values may get above 100F in many
locations, while a few spots could see air temps hit 100F.
Regardless, it will be quite hot, and with the expectation that
overnight lows will not dip below 70F for much of the lower
elevations each night, the heat stress to public health and
power infrastructure will continue to compound across the area.
Thus the Advisory will remain in place, and at some we will need
to contemplate an extension to Saturday.

A few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible Friday
and Saturday in the afternoon and evening hours, primarily over
the higher terrain and in north-central WV. Whatever develops
will be garden variety airmass convection, as very light winds
aloft will provide no shear for storm organization or
longevity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

It will still be on the hot side on Sunday, though likely a few
degrees cooler than Saturday across the CWA. Cloud cover and
moisture are forecast to increase some as SW`ly winds develop
ahead of a cold front moving through the Midwest. Models seem to
be coming into better agreement that the front will pass Sunday
night or Monday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening,
with a band of showers and/or storms then expected with the
front itself. To far out currently to say much on severe
potential, but we`ll need to monitor as there is likely to be
some increase in shear, as well as at least some elevated
instability overnight.

Monday sees temps drop a bit, with mid-80s to around 90 degrees
expected for the lower elevations, and 70s to low 80s in the
mountains. The reprieve is likely to be short-lived, as the
upper-level ridge starts to build back into the area on Tuesday,
with temperatures following suit a few degrees warmer than
Monday. Once the front clears the area by Monday morning, precip
chances should be cut-off in its wake, and the forecast for dry
weather persists into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

MVFR/IFR restrictions to ceilings and visibility will be possible
through the early morning hours as areas of fog form. Fog is likely
to be most prevalent where rain fell over the past day. Meanwhile,
outside of fog, VFR conditions should continue into the morning.
Once fog dissipates after daybreak, all terminals return to VFR
flight conditions for the remainder of the day.

Calm to light flow becomes light and variable during the day,
then calms and remains variable after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of overnight fog may vary
from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 06/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on
several days.

The records for Wednesday, June 19 to Sunday, June 23 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the
current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 92 / 98 (1919) | 94 / 99 (1931) | 96 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 93 / 98 (1994) | 96 /100 (1931) | 97 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 93 / 94 (1994) | 93 / 94 (1931) | 94 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 94 / 95 (1994) | 95 / 97 (1931) | 97 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 86 / 90 (1944) | 88 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 90 / 89 (1905) | 92 / 92 (1931) | 92 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 97 / 98 (1988) | 95 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 99 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 96 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 92 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 93 / 93 (1923) | 89 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus
the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     91     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     94     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...