517
FXUS61 KRLX 200717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
317 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* High pressure maintains control today and tonight.
* Heat advisory remains in effect.

Patchy fog is beginning to form and should gradually expand in
coverage before daybreak. Fog will dissipate once the sun comes up,
then predominantly dry conditions are expected as high pressure
remains in control through tonight.

This persistent high pressure centered overhead will yield yet
another hot day, with high temperatures forecast to be in the 90s in
the lowlands. While 80s to 90s are expected for much of the
mountains, the higher ridges may not rise above upper 70s. Heat
index values for today may rise a bit higher than yesterday, with
mid to upper 90s and a sprinkling of triple digits possible across
the lowlands. No changes are planned for the Heat Advisory which
remains in effect through Saturday evening.

Similar to the past couple of nights, low temperatures for
tonight are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s in the
lowlands and 60s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

The heat looks to surge a bit to end the week, with highs both
days in at least the mid-90s for lower elevations, and mainly
80s in the mountains. Heat index values should reach or exceed
100F in some spots each day, so the Heat Advisory will remain in
place through Saturday. A few isolated showers and storms are
possible both Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and
evening hours, with the best chances in and near the mountains,
but much of the area should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

It will still be on the hot side on Sunday, though likely a few
degrees cooler than Saturday for most of the CWA. Cloud cover
and moisture are forecast to increase some as SW`ly winds
develop ahead of a cold front moving through the Midwest. Models
seem to be coming into better agreement that the front will
pass Sunday night or Monday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front later Sunday
afternoon and evening, with a band of showers and/or storms then
expected with the front itself. It is too far out currently to
say much on severe potential, but we`ll need to monitor as there
is likely to be some increase in shear, as well as at least
some elevated instability overnight.

Monday sees temps drop a bit, with mid-80s to around 90 degrees
expected for the lower elevations, and 70s to low 80s in the
mountains. The reprieve is likely to be short-lived, as the
upper-level ridge starts to build back into the area on Tuesday.
Temperatures will follow suit, with highs back into the lower
90s for lower elevations for Tuesday and Wednesday. Once the
front clears the area by Monday morning, precip chances should
be cut- off in its wake, and the forecast for dry weather
persists into Tuesday. Another weak shortwave crossing the
Appalachians, could bring showers and storms to the area later
on Wednesday, but details on timing and precip extent remain
hazy at this long lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period as high
pressure maintains control. The only exception to this will be
sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities within fog that forms early
this morning. IFR or worse will be possible at a few terminals
before fog dissipates between 11-13Z.

Calm to light winds should carry into the morning, then flow will be
light and variable for the remainder of the day before calming again
around 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog could vary
from the current forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures are
forcast to approach record highs at some locations on several
days.

The records for Thursday, June 20 to Sunday, June 23 are listed
below for our official climate sites, along with the current
forecast values.

  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 99 (1931) | 95 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 94 /100 (1931) | 96 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 92 / 94 (1931) | 94 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 94 / 97 (1931) | 96 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 87 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 91 / 92 (1931) | 92 / 92 (1953) |
---------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 96 / 98 (1988) | 95 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 97 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 96 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 95 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 91 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 93 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be
neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the
all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     92     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     94     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

             Records Broken Thus Far
---------------------------------------------------
      Date          Site   New Record  Old Record |
---------------------------------------------------
June 18th (Tues.) |  EKN  |    92    |  91 (1994) |
June 19th (Weds.) |  EKN  |    90    |  89 (1905) |
---------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW