412
FXUS61 KRLX 180654
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain
showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek.
Mainly dry/quiet weather comes back Friday through weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Remnants of the quasi-tropical low pressure system #8 will
meander about just south of our area inching toward the
Atlantic. The parent upper level closed low will drive further
north than the surface low and station itself right overhead of
the area. This feature will keep slightly unsettled weather
across much of the area today but will wane by this early
evening.

Less cloud coverage by the afternoon will allow temperatures to
exceed slightly higher than yesterday with most of the lowlands
potentially surpassing the 80 degree mark with the higher
elevations right around the mid 70`s and slightly cooler along
the mountains. East-southeasterly flow will provide some
potential activity along the mountains and east from there with
the highest chances for a shower and possible storm this mid
afternoon. The rest of the area will struggle to get any kind
of rain amounts due to downsloping from boundary layer flow
drying out the lowlands somewhat.

Sufficient CAPE, especially during the afternoon when clouds
start to break up a bit, will allow for the potential of
thunderstorm activity but elected to have it only diurnal. This
equated to cutting probability off right in the early evening
and any activity should only be confined to the mountains and
will likely be very isolated in nature. The upper low turns into
an open wave and shifts off toward the northeast by the
overnight hours into early morning quieting down shower activity
going into the morning with upper level ridging moving in from
the west during the next period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Closed low pressure system becomes an open wave disturbance Thursday
night as it gains some momentum moving northeastward. As a result,
precipitation chances will wane west to east with higher
probabilities of 20-30% along and east of the mountains.

Temperatures will start to increase Thursday, depending on cloud
cover, with highs around or a few degrees above normal. The
lowlands will see temperatures around 80 up to the mid 80s; the
mountains will range anywhere from the mid 60s to upper 70s dur
to clouds. Relative humidity values will continue to stay above fire
weather criteria Thursday due to abundant moisture in the area.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
across the area by afternoon though as shortwave disturbances on
the back side of the trough move across the area. Additional
light rainfall amounts are likely with the highest amounts
across our northeastern mountains and foothills. Precipitation
will taper off from west to east late Thursday afternoon into
the overnight hours, even as the disturbance meanders just to
our northeast over NY/PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

High pressure nudges in on Friday reintroducing drier weather,
mostly clear skies and much warmer temperatures. This trend
will last through the weekend with mid to high 80s to around 90
across the lowlands each day; upper 60s to lower 80s in the
mountains.

RH percentages could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s
across a bulk of the territory both Friday through Sunday.
Winds look light enough to mitigate fire weather headlines
though.

Rain chances return possibly on Monday with a low pressure
system approaching from the west allowing for slight chances of
showers across the area by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will
also be about 3-5 degrees less warm, but still above normal. RH
values look to recover as well on Monday, most locations are
forecasted to get back into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

MVFR cloud decks are filtering in affecting EKN/BKW today. This
will be the theme for today while through the afternoon most
sites may see a MVFR deck at times or for most of the time for
the mountain sites, but it should not last long as clouds will
continue to lift by mid afternoon and scatter out by the late
afternoon/early evening. VFR should be back in control by the
late afternoon, very early evening at the latest.

During the afternoon shower potential will exist for mainly the
mountain sites and the western sites may not see much if any
activity besides a lone isolated shower possibly. Any showers
will be light in nature and should not take down VIS too much,
if any. The chances for shower and thunderstorm activity are
very low and kept out mention of thunderstorms since they would
be very isolated and even lower in probability.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lower cloud decks could sneak into the
mountain sites such as EKN/BKW that would lower their flight
category to IFR or lower.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 09/18/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ