Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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632 FXUS61 KRLX 171822 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 222 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek. Mainly dry/quiet weather comes back Friday through weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... A low pressure system will meander over the Carolinas for the next couple of days, while it continues to weaken and move east, off the Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, periods of light rain showers, away from its center, will spread across the area tonight and Wednesday. Some light rain main sneak into the lowlands from time to time. However, rainfall accumulations will be minimal, with localized 0.25 inches across the higher terrain with lesser amounts elsewhere. Instability looks marginal for Wednesday under abundant cloudiness and cool temperatures. Models are not handling well light precipitation with this system. Therefore, will keep slight chance PoPs across the lowlands, and chance PoPs along the eastern mountains. Also, believe guidance is overforecasting thunder. Removed thunder from forecast due to the lack of a kicker for Wednesday. High humidity will keep tonight`s lows ranging from the lower 60s across the lowlands, into the mid 50s northeast mountains. Clouds and cooling showers will suppress afternoon heating, providing about normal temperatures on Wednesday. Used the most representative NBM 50th percentile for temperatures and dewpoints through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Closed low pressure system becomes an open wave disturbance Thursday night as it gains some momentum moving northeastward. As a result, precipitation chances will wane west to east with higher probabilities of 20-30% along and east of the mountains. Temperatures will start to increase Thursday, depending on cloud cover, with highs around or a few degrees above normal. The lowlands will see temperatures around 80 up to the mid 80s; the mountains will range anywhere from the mid 60s to upper 70s dur to clouds. Relative humidity values will continue to stay above fire weather criteria Thursday due to abundant moisture in the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area by afternoon though as shortwave disturbances on the back side of the trough move across the area. Additional light rainfall amounts are likely with the highest amounts across our northeastern mountains and foothills. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours, even as the disturbance meanders just to our northeast over NY/PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1250 PM Tuesday... High pressure nudges in on Friday reintroducing drier weather, mostly clear skies and much warmer temperatures. This trend will last through the weekend with mid to high 80s to around 90 across the lowlands each day; upper 60s to lower 80s in the mountains. RH percentages could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across a bulk of the territory both Friday through Sunday. Winds look light enough to mitigate fire weather headlines though. Rain chances return possibly on Monday with a low pressure system approaching from the west allowing for slight chances of showers across the area by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will also be about 3-5 degrees less warm, but still above normal. RH values look to recover as well on Monday, most locations are forecasted to get back into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 137 PM Tuesday... Conditions will continue to slowly deteriorate as moisture and passing showers fill the column this evening and the rest of tonight. VFR conditions at PKB, CKB, and HTS will become MVFR under light rain. MVFR conditions currently at EKN, CRW and BKW will become IFR/LIFR overnight tonight. Showers will slowly decrease in intensity and coverage during the overnight hours, but still few showers will be possible Wednesday morning. Areas of dense fog or low stratus may develop across the higher elevations tonight into Wednesday morning, lasting at least through 15Z. Then, conditions may improve to VFR/MVFR Wednesday outside showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extend of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M M L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JZ