142
FXUS61 KRLX 200654
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad
upper level ridge. A cold front arrives late Sunday night into
Monday, with showers and storms, and somewhat cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* High pressure maintains control today and tonight.
* Heat advisory remains in effect.

Patchy fog is beginning to form and should gradually expand in
coverage before daybreak. Fog will dissipate once the sun comes up,
then predominantly dry conditions are expected as high pressure
remains in control through tonight.

This persistent high pressure centered overhead will yield yet
another hot day, with high temperatures forecast to be in the 90s in
the lowlands. While 80s to 90s are expected for much of the
mountains, the higher ridges may not rise above upper 70s. Heat
index values for today may rise a bit higher than yesterday, with
mid to upper 90s and a sprinkling of triple digits possible across
the lowlands. No changes are planned for the Heat Advisory which
remains in effect through Saturday evening.

Similar to the past couple of nights, low temperatures for
tonight are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s in the
lowlands and 60s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 206 PM Wednesday...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain in control through
Saturday, with above normal temperatures, and occasional showers and
storms during peak heating hours. Although dew points will generally
only be in the 60s during the period, the continuation of
temperatures in the upper 90s to possibly even around 100, should
warrant expansion of the heat advisory in time across much of the
lowland counties through at least Saturday. An isolated severe storm
is possible on Saturday, with a damaging wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Ridge finally starts to break down on Sunday, as low pressure moves
east across the Great Lakes region, eventually sweeping a cold front
through the area at the start of the long term period. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous on Sunday with the approach
of this system, and an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be
ruled out Sunday and Sunday evening/night. Frontal boundary will
move east of the area on Monday, for drier conditions, as well as a
welcome reprieve from the oppressive heat. Weather beyond Monday is
uncertain at this point, but general consensus at this point is to
maintain mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period as high
pressure maintains control. The only exception to this will be
sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities within fog that forms early
this morning. IFR or worse will be possible at a few terminals
before fog dissipates between 11-13Z.

Calm to light winds should carry into the morning, then flow will be
light and variable for the remainder of the day before calming again
around 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog could vary
from the current forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 06/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

A heat wave continues through the weekend. Temperatures are
forcast to approach record highs at some locations on several
days.

The records for Thursday, June 20 to Sunday, June 23 are listed
below for our official climate sites, along with the current
forecast values.

  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------
      Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 99 (1931) | 95 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 94 /100 (1931) | 95 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 92 / 94 (1931) | 93 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 94 / 97 (1931) | 96 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 87 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 91 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1953) |
---------------------------------------
      Saturday, 6/22 |  Sunday, 6/23  |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) |
HTS | 99 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1930) |
CKB | 96 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) |
PKB | 98 / 98 (1988) | 93 / 94 (1964) |
BKW | 92 / 92 (1931) | 89 / 91 (1931) |
EKN | 94 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) |
---------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be
neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the
all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |     97     |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |     99     |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |     96     |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |     98     |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |     92     |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |     94     |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

             Records Broken Thus Far
---------------------------------------------------
      Date          Site   New Record  Old Record |
---------------------------------------------------
June 18th (Tues.) |  EKN  |    92    |  91 (1994) |
June 19th (Weds.) |  EKN  |    90    |  89 (1905) |
---------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...TRM/JLB/GW