112
FXUS61 KRLX 140728
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry start, then a chance for showers and storms this afternoon
and evening with a cold front. An extended stretch of hot
weather will begin Sunday and last much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

Mostly calm and clear the rest of tonight, though some clouds
are working into our SE Ohio and Mid-Ohio Valley counties. We
still have a few hours where some river valley fog could form,
but none has as of press time. If any does form, it likely will
be more patchy than previous nights.

Another warm day is in store for today, with forecast highs
several degrees above normal for most of the area. Some showers
have been noted over ILN`s area, but have generally dissipated
as they moved southeast towards our CWA. However, as a weak cold
front gradually pushes south and southeast towards the area,
some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
eventually make it into the CWA. Greatest chances still look to
be across the northern half of the CWA, but at least isolated
activity is possible areawide. With surface CAPE over 1500 J/kg
in spots, and modest shear of 25-40 kts possible, a few storms
could have longevity and produce strong winds or marginally
severe hail.

Most storms should weaken and eventually dissipate in the few
hours following sunset, with clearing expected overnight. Areas
that receive rain today could then see some fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Dry and hot this weekend.
* May feel like triple digits in the lowlands on Monday.

Surface high pressure edges in from the north on Saturday while an
upper ridge builds overhead. Ridging then remains present over the
area for the balance of the weekend and beginning of the new work
week. While temperatures will already be toasty at the start
of the weekend, even hotter conditions are anticipated early
next week courtesy of the persistent upper level ridge. High
temperatures are forecast to break into the 90s in the lowlands
on Sunday. Monday may be even hotter, with 80s to low 90s
possible along the mountains and mid to upper 90s in the
lowlands. A combination of heat and humidity could make it feel
like triple digits in the lowlands Monday afternoon.

After a dry weekend, increasing heat and humidity reintroduces
the chance for isolated convection Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Heat lingers much of next week.
* Storms possible in the afternoons.

High pressure is expected to sustain a stretch of hot weather
through Thursday. While dry conditions are anticipated early
each day, hot and humid conditions could initiate some
convection in the afternoons. Any activity should wane again
after sunset.

Models still display some discrepancies on the placement of the
upper ridge and how quickly it departs later in the week. For
example, the ECMWF leans towards drier conditions with the upper
ridge planted overhead while the GFS shows better potential for
periods of showers and storms as the upper ridge shifts farther
east.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Friday...

Some clouds are encroaching from the northwest, but most areas
southeast of the Ohio River remain cloud free for now. Calm
winds and VFR conditions are noted areawide and any showers over
ILN`s area seem to be dissipating before making it into our CWA.
Some river valley fog will be possible between now and early
Friday morning, but likely more patchy than previous nights, and
none has formed as of TAF time, at least that is picked up on
satellite.

As a cold front pushes down from the north and northwest this
afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA.
However, coverage is questionable so POPs are generally kept on
the lower side for the time being, and was not included as
prevailing weather in any TAFs. Outside of any t-storms, winds
should remain on the lighter side - generally SW-W`ly ahead of
the front, and N`ly once it pushes through.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium due to uncertainty on fog extent and
timing tonight, and timing/coverage of t-storms tomorrow.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing tonight may differ
from the forecast. Thunderstorms could wind up a bit more
widespread than expected.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 06/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog on Saturday and
Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...FK