Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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489 FXUS61 KRLX 190626 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system exits northeast tonight, allowing a few rain showers or storms to develop this afternoon. Dry and quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday Weak surface high pressure shifting toward the area from the north will not be enough to hold off any chances for shower and/or thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Around 2000 J/kg of CAPE will support a few thunderstorms just as yesterday, however the potential should only be confined to mainly the higher elevations, but we cannot rule out a few rogue showers/storms across the lowlands mainly along the Ohio River and east of there. Once the afternoon Cu field scatters out by late afternoon chances of any activity will diminish along with most cloud coverage for the early evening as upper level ridging moves in from the west. A quiet night will follow with very weak surface flow and mostly clear skies which will cause for another potential day for dense fog, especially across the mountain valleys. With plenty of breaks in cloud coverage today temperatures will be allowed to climb to above seasonable, sort of like yesterday, but not expecting anywhere to reach above the 80`s with the mountains staying in the 70`s and 60`s for the peaks and ridges. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... Patchy, dense fog will be likely across the area Thursday night/Friday morning as the low pressure center (remnants of Extratropical Cyclone Eight) continues to move off to the northeast as a semi open-wave feature. Clearing skies and a previous day`s rainfall will allow decent fog coverage across the river valleys. The rest of Friday looks to showcase dry and warm weather as high pressure shoves its way into the area. Clear skies will provide the warmest temperatures of the week. The lowlands will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s, while the mountains will see temperatures in the 70s to the lower 80s. Dry relative humidity values in the upper 20s and lower 30s are forecasted across the lowlands in the afternoon which would be concern for fire weather, however northwest winds look to be light enough to mitigate the threat. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... This Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night): Drier weather continues with stout dome of high pressure over Texas forcing a ridge over the area. A few shortwave disturbances are forecasted to move through the ridge pattern, but only really looking at transient cloud cover from these. There is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains, but confidence is low in this occurring. Temperatures will be very warm to hot with the lowlands seeing upper 80s to lower 90s each day; while the mountains will stay in the 70s to the low 80s. Relative humidity percentages look dry each afternoon with minimum values in the upper 20s and lower 30s forecasted for the warmest areas. Winds will be light however, so fire weather headlines do not look likely at this time. Next Week (Monday through Wednesday): Chances for rain will gradually increase ahead of a low pressure system in the Midwest, though only allowed for chance PoPs as some uncertainty still remains. Some energy looks to arrive Monday afternoon and diurnal heating could lead to some showers and thunderstorms. Highest chances look to be Tuesday afternoon onward as the low swings off into Canada and forces a strong trough across the area by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be the warmest on Monday with low to high 80s expected across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Temperatures will gradually lessen back to around normal going into midweek with upper 70s and lower 80s being common on Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on RH values, but currently they are forecasted to remain above concern next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Thursday... Models have hit hard on dense fog this morning covering most of the area. After full analysis went ahead and elected to add fog into all the sites except for BKW who will likely endure a low MVFR deck into the afternoon, therefore deterring fog formation. The other sites may not be so lucky as mostly clear skies and calm wind will allow for some patchy fog to develop which may become dense at times. Any fog will lift and scatter out by 13-14Z. An afternoon Cu deck may develop today but will likely scatter out quickly by the late afternoon becoming mostly clear by the evening. High pressure builds in from the north but there will remain some chances for showers and/or thunderstorms mainly along the mountains possibly affecting BKW/EKN during the mid afternoon, but the threat will quickly diminish by the late afternoon. Any IFR/MVFR CIGs will lift and scatter out by 14-17Z. For the overnight, expect potential for more dense fog as the same conditions will be in place, especially across the mountain (eastern) sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low into early morning. High today. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and/or dense fog formation may vary from forecast overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/19/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M L L M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L M L L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M L L M H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in low stratus or fog Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JZ