Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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242 FXUS61 KRLX 181747 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system exits northeast late Thursday, allowing a few rain showers or storms to develop Thursday afternoon. Dry and quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Wednesday... Broad upper-level low pressure, associated with former tropical cyclone #8, will continue to weaken as it exits northeast through Thursday night. Meanwhile, guidance suggests extensive low stratus deck affecting most areas overnight tonight, gradually lifting by mid morning Thursday. In addition, light showers will move west against the eastern mountains, depositing light rain accumulations tonight. Precipitation activity becomes less widespread on Thursday, with the possibility of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Model evaluation: current satellite imagery and surface observations reflect the 25th percentile of sky cover. If continue with the 25th percentile through the overnight hours, will end up with partly clear skies. Together with near calm flow, widespread dense fog is progged by model consensus. However, due to minimum antecedent rainfall, believe overcast low stratus may result instead along and near the mountains overnight tonight. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out tonight into Thursday morning. Tonight`s temperatures will be cooler than last nights, generally from the upper 50s to lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains. Highs for Thursday will range from the mid 80s across the lowlands, into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... A decaying low pressure system continues to lose its influence on the area as it drifts away. Showers should be confined to areas in and near the mountains Thursday, with the mid/upper- level component of the system nearby to the east. Breaks of sun should allow enough diurnal destabilization for an afternoon mountain thunderstorm as well. With precipitation having become diurnally driven, there is a quick shutoff of PoPs on sunset Thursday evening. A dearth of cloud and wind Thursday night will allow areas of fog to form, particularly in areas lucky enough to get rain. High pressure wedging in from the northeast beneath mid/upper- level northwest flow will provide dry weather Friday, with fog possible again Friday night. Less cloud and wind allow high temperatures to climb above normal, while lows settle to about normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... This Weekend (Saturday through Sunday night): Drier weather continues with stout dome of high pressure over Texas forcing a ridge over the area. A few shortwave disturbances are forecasted to move through the ridge pattern, but only really looking at transient cloud cover from these. There is a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains, but confidence is low in this occurring. Temperatures will be very warm to hot with the lowlands seeing upper 80s to lower 90s each day; while the mountains will stay in the 70s to the low 80s. Relative humidity percentages look dry each afternoon with minimum values in the upper 20s and lower 30s forecasted for the warmest areas. Winds will be light however, so fire weather headlines do not look likely at this time. Next Week (Monday through Wednesday): Chances for rain will gradually increase ahead of a low pressure system in the Midwest, though only allowed for chance PoPs as some uncertainty still remains. Some energy looks to arrive Monday afternoon and diurnal heating could lead to some showers and thunderstorms. Highest chances look to be Tuesday afternoon onward as the low swings off into Canada and forces a strong trough across the area by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be the warmest on Monday with low to high 80s expected across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. Temperatures will gradually lessen back to around normal going into midweek with upper 70s and lower 80s being common on Wednesday. Will have to keep an eye on RH values, but currently they are forecasted to remain above concern next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 PM Wednesday... Upper level disturbance will keep low chances for precipitation through tonight. Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals, with a slight possibility of MVFR ceilings under an isolated light shower through tonight. Model solutions converge in widespread dense fog or low stratus developing with IFR/LIFR restrictions areawide overnight through Thursday morning. However, will deviate from consensus due to dry air, noticed in water vapor imagery, and the lack of real wetting rain to support widespread dense fog. Uncertain whether cloud cover will be a factor suppressing dense fog formation. Therefore, will code IFR/LIFR conditions along the mountains and western foothills in low stratus or mountain obscuration. Also, coded dense fog along river valleys, keeping MVFR visibility across western sites such as PKB, HTS and including CRW, and IFR or worse conditions at CKB, EKN and BKW through 13Z Thursday morning. Restrictions will gradually lift to MVFR and to VFR by 17Z Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through midnight. Low overnight into early morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions due to low stratus and/or dense fog formation may vary from forecast overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ