Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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035 FXUS61 KRLX 262106 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 506 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses overnight into Thursday, with rounds showers and storms. A few storms could be strong or severe. Another cold front crosses this weekend with additional storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 505 PM Wednesday... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 in effect until 10 PM to account for ongoing convection in central WV, which has caused tree damage and produced close to one-inch size hail in Kanawha County, and the potential convective development farther west, more closely tied forcing associated with with mid-level short wave trough. As of 1237 PM Wednesday... Showers and storms from this morning will continue to gradually lift north and east of the area. An area of clearing in the cloud cover has occurred across parts of our south and west behind this band, and mesoanalysis and satellite images indicate increasing instability and some cu starting to develop in the area of clearing. Showers and storms will ramp up this afternoon and evening out ahead of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front in the increasingly unstable atmosphere, with the possibility of a few storms becoming strong to severe. Model soundings indicate the potential for 2500 J/Kg cape out ahead of this feature, and with strengthening deep unidirectional shear, linear organization of storms is possible, along with the possibility of pulse severe storms, with a damaging wind threat. In addition, with freezing levels around 12k feet, some marginally severe hail is possible. In addition, with PW values already around 1.7 inches and progged to rise to close to 2 inches, heavy downpours will accompany any storms, and although we are quite dry, a localized water issue cant be completely ruled out in poor drainage/low lying areas. Frontal boundary will clear mountains during the day Thursday. Additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday across the higher terrain from any lingering moisture, but most of the area should dry out and be cooler. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... After a comfortable Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid-50s to the mid-60s, winds shift S`ly and bring heat and humidity back to the area for Friday. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and dew points creep back up towards 70 degrees. It should remain dry for most of the CWA on Friday, but some convective activity is possible in the higher terrain, especially the southern mountains. A muggy Friday night is in store, with lows generally in the low to mid-70s for lower elevations. Some of the model data hints at a weak upper-level shortwave crossing the area Friday night, which could help enhance shower and t-storm chances area-wide, so POPs were boosted to chance for most of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 AM Wednesday... Another shortwave could cross the area during the day Saturday as the next cold front approaches from the west, with showers and storms likely on Saturday. It will also be very humid on Saturday, and likely on the hot side, though that may depend on precip and cloud coverage in the afternoon. SPC did not put any 15% outlook area on the Day 4/Saturday map, as there remains uncertainty on the severe parameters. That said, there is a chance for both sufficient instability and at least marginal shear across the area during the day on Saturday, so we`ll need to monitor for severe potential. Ensemble mean PWATs are near or over 2" for much of the area on all three global ensembles, so flooding risk will also need to be monitored - WPC does have our area in a Marginal excessive rainfall risk for Day 4, which seems sensible at this time. With the front passage currently timed for the late Saturday night or Sunday morning, the severe risk is likely lower than what it would be otherwise. That said, there are some indications in forecast soundings and MU CAPE values that some elevated instability could track with the front, so we may not be able to let our guard down entirely Saturday night. After the wet and muggy start Sunday morning, dry air and surface high pressure working in behind the front will clear the showers and storms, and should drop dew points under 70 degrees for all by sunset. Sunday night through Monday night look to be some banner weather for those looking for a break from the hot weather. Dew points look to be in the 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows at similar levels and Monday`s highs ranging from upper 60s on the highest ridges to low 80s in the Ohio Valley area. All good things must come to an end, however, and southerly winds developing on Tuesday will bring surging dew points and temperatures across the CWA, though lingering upper- level ridging should hold off rain chances. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 138 PM Wednesday... VFR to start the period, however, after 21Z, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase, with brief MVFR/IFR or even LIFR conditions in heavy rain, and strong/damaging wind gusts in vicinity of storms. Bulk of convection will move east of the area after 06-09Z, but widespread MVFR and areas of IFR conditions will linger in low stratus and fog. After 12Z Thursday, expect a gradual improvement to VFR area wide with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight may vary from the forecast. Development and duration of low stratus or fog late tonight and early Thursday may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M L H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/SL SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...SL