Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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370 FXUS61 KRLX 221750 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 150 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... Hot and humid weather will continue today with little relief expected overnight. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday, and ahead of it, clouds will approach from the northwest and winds will become breezier out of the southwest. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Areas along and north of the Ohio River are positioned in a slight risk for severe weather with the rest of the area placed in a marginal risk for severe weather. The excessive rainfall risk will be marginal Sunday, but because of how dry the ground has been lately, flooding can be avoided if thunderstorms move quickly enough. However, training thunderstorms can still produce localized flooding. Reviewing the severe risk, LCLs are expected to be around 1,500 meters and 0-6km bulk shear will only be at 20-25 knots. Therefore, tornadoes are not much of a concern. A quick spin up cannot be ruled out, mainly across northern WV or southeast OH in more favorable wind shear. Freezing levels will be anywhere from 15,000-16,000 feet AGL, and few storms could potentially grow tall enough to produce marginally severe hail. We believe the main concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts with any storms late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... Sunday will be hot and humid once again as surface high pressure remains underneath increasingly neutral flow aloft due to the high pressure center pushing off to the Southwest CONUS. Temperatures will be about 3-6 degrees less hot than Saturday, due to an approaching system from the west. As a result, some high-level clouds will begin moving in throughout the morning, gradually lowering during the afternoon. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the same ballpark. The mountains however, will range between the mid 70s (highest elevations) to the upper 80s (lowest elevations and mountain valleys). A quick-hitting cold front will then approach from the midwest by afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on the door of our western periphery. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east over the course of the afternoon. PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening as the cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms, a few could be severe, will pack damaging winds, some small hail and heavy rainfall as models project precipitable water values between 1.50" and 2.00". CAPE looks to be between 1,000 and 3,000 J/KG ahead of the front in the afternoon with sfc to 500MB shear approaching 40 kts. Some localized to isolated water issues could be possible with the heaviest downpours within these storms, but not overly concerned with flooding as the area could use the rain. Both a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms has been hoisted for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 125 PM Saturday... High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day Tuesday. With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week, west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night, and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a dry end to the week. Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around 60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the balance of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 134 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will continue through the day with partly to mostly sunny skies. An afternoon thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the mountains this afternoon, but chances were low enough to leave out any mention in the TAFs. IFR dense fog is possible overnight in KEKN. Otherwise, conditions will return to VFR again areawide for the first half of Sunday with increasing high clouds from the west. Breezy southwest winds are expected Sunday ahead of a cold front, will will arrive Sunday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon thunderstorms may or may not effect TAF sites in the mountains this afternoon. Fog may or may not develop at KEKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMC