Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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806 FXUS61 KRLX 221725 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 840 AM Saturday... The forecast largely remains on track in this morning`s update, but we`ve made some slight adjustments to forecast temperatures to better reflect current observations. As of 1255 AM Saturday... A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Models indicating a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... Sunday will be hot and humid once again as surface high pressure remains underneath increasingly neutral flow aloft due to the high pressure center pushing off to the Southwest CONUS. Temperatures will be about 3-6 degrees less hot than Saturday, due to an approaching system from the west. As a result, some high-level clouds will begin moving in throughout the morning, gradually lowering during the afternoon. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the same ballpark. The mountains however, will range between the mid 70s (highest elevations) to the upper 80s (lowest elevations and mountain valleys). A quick-hitting cold front will then approach from the midwest by afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on the door of our western periphery. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east over the course of the afternoon. PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening as the cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms, a few could be severe, will pack damaging winds, some small hail and heavy rainfall as models project precipitable water values between 1.50" and 2.00". CAPE looks to be between 1,000 and 3,000 J/KG ahead of the front in the afternoon with sfc to 500MB shear approaching 40 kts. Some localized to isolated water issues could be possible with the heaviest downpours within these storms, but not overly concerned with flooding as the area could use the rain. Both a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms has been hoisted for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 125 PM Saturday... High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day Tuesday. With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week, west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night, and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a dry end to the week. Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around 60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the balance of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 600 AM Saturday... Patchy river valley fog will dissipate early this morning. There is also a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs. Outside of these 2 items, expect VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon thunderstorms may or may not effect TAF sites in the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...RPY/JMC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY