Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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898 FXUS61 KRLX 261319 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses today, with rounds showers and storms; a few storms could be strong or severe. Chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 816 AM Wednesday... A few tweaks were made to grids this morning. Temperatures are already soaring into the upper 70s to lower 80s this morning in southerly flow. In addition, convection is lingering and is a little farther east this morning than previously forecast. It is however showing signs of weakening, with main band across Ohio moving northward as previously forecast. As of 640 AM Wednesday... Seeing a complex of storms in Kentucky just to the west of the forecast area with a shortwave trough. A few showers are forming ahead of the complex across the Tri-State area. Updated POPs to reflect this. Otherwise, everything remains on track. As of 220 AM Wednesday... Key Points: * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. * Some storms could be strong or severe. * Main threats are damaging winds and hail. * There is a slight risk (2/5) of severe weather and a marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall today. A warm front is about to start traversing the area this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible for some locations along and behind the front early this morning. Chances are higher across southeastern Ohio, northeastern Kentucky and western West Virginia when an outflow boundary from a dead MCS over the Midwest moves through. The amount of activity we receive this morning will be pivotal in the severity of the second round that will move through ahead of a cold front this afternoon. There is a chance that the round early this morning could disrupt the expected second round of storms this afternoon. The second round of showers and thunderstorms will move through this afternoon lasting into the evening as a cold front crosses the area. There will most likely be a linear mode to this round of storms with possible cells ahead of the main line. This system looks to hit during the prime heating of the day, so some storms could be strong to severe. As such, SPC has the entire forecast area in slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. The main threats will be damaging winds and hail with these storms. The tornado threat has diminished for the most part as bulk shear values this afternoon continue to lessen; SPC has even dropped the 2 percent risk across the area. Will still remain vigilant for any changes with that threat. NAM soundings show a decent CAPE profiles between 1,500 and 3,500 J/Kg this afternoon in multiple locations, i.e Charleston, Huntington, southeast Ohio and Carter County, KY. 3km CAPE also looks to be above 100J/Kg for multiple locations. Freezing level looks to be between 11,000 and 12,000 feet which is slightly lower than previous events, meaning the increased risk for hail is present. Overall, the potential for a linear event with damaging winds and hail is on tap for this afternoon if all pans out. Another afternoon of above normal temperatures is expected today and most guidance agrees on upper 80s and lower 90s for the lowlands; upper 70s to upper 80s in the mountains. There is a chance that cloud cover clings around the area today preventing temperatures from reaching projected values, but this will depend on the speed at which this warm front moves through, which would impact the severity of the aforementioned storms. WPC issued a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as PWATs are between 1.50" and 2.00" indicating heavy downpours are likely with some of these storms and showers. Localized to isolated flooding could be possible for areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, especially locations that have a lower FFG, such as the northern lowlands from Parkersburg to Clarksburg. Will also have to watch any remnant cold pool moisture overnight into Thursday morning that could be behind the cold front. For the most part though, things will start settle down early Thursday morning outside of some lingering moisture in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable temperatures can be expected for Thursday. With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday, southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are also once again possible, although most of the region will remain dry. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through late Saturday night into Sunday, with better agreement on the timing than previous runs. A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front on Monday. Models have some disagreement on the amount of cooler air for Monday, with temperatures either more seasonable or possibly even below normal. The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 645 AM Wednesday... Seeing a few showers form across the Tri-State Area ahead of storm complex over Kentucky. Most sites will escape seeing showers, except for possibly HTS and PKB. Otherwise, VFR until the afternoon under BKN and SCT skies. Another round of thunderstorms and showers will arrive this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes unstable ahead of a cold front, anytime after ~16Z, as a cold front approaches from the west. MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in and around any showers and storms. Light to calm SW`rly flow expected this morning. Winds will pick up with mixing, then shift out of the west this afternoon with the FROPA. Winds could be breezy at times during the day and gusty in and around showers and thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms today into tonight, and again on Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC NEAR TERM...SL/LTC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...LTC