205
FXUS61 KRLX 061505
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1105 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits by late morning. Another cold frontal passage
this late afternoon promoting isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity. Cooler/drier Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

Radar imagery shows how mostly showers exit east of the Appalachians
late this morning. Water vapor satellite imagery and local
soundings reflect very dry air aloft, allowing skies to clear
from west to east early this afternoon. However, diurnal heating
and limited low level moisture will allow for an afternoon cu
field to develop. Showers and storms still expected to develop
ahead of an approaching cold front this evening. Any shower/storm
that manage to develop will be rather weak and low topped.
Therefore, Adjusted low PoPs, describing the isolated nature of
convection. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 145 AM Thursday...

With frontal passage through the area by late morning chances
of precipitation will taper off and become confined to and along
the mountains. Clouds will clear out behind the front, but will
fill back in slightly for the afternoon when a Cu deck is
forecast to form although will have breaks in cloud coverage.

Looking at soundings, modest shear will be available due to a
relatively weak mid level jet, along with some instability from
getting to the low 80`s across most of the area and along with
breaks in cloud coverage, this all should be enough to develop
and sustain shower activity during the afternoon and evening.
However, thunderstorm activity will have low probability due to
having mid level caps in the soundings along with dry air in
the mid to upper levels.

The feature that will help promote thunderstorm activity will
be another weak frontal boundary parented by the upper level
low just to our north. This boundary of convection will advect
in from the west and drive east through the late afternoon and
into the evening. This will provide enough moisture and lift to
enhance shower activity to thunderstorms although will likely
be isolated in nature and also will likely be low topped weak
storms.

This should be the last thing to affect us from the low to the
north before it kicks out toward the east late tonight into
Friday. Hi-res models support this solution so it was added into
the forecast. Thereafter, clouds clear out nicely and although
surface flow may stay slightly elevated enough to deter some fog
formation, it will likely form along the mountains and may
spill into parts of the lowlands, but not thinking anything
dense as of now.

One last thing to mention is the fact that PWATS are still high
along with low level moisture and lapse rates and not to mention
DCAPE which could help some showers become heavy at times so the
single threat may be isolated flash flooding. This will be
possible under heavy convection, especially under training
conditions, across low lying or flood prone areas, but this
would be very isolated in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Post frontal northwesterly flow will yield a somewhat breezy but dry
day Friday as cooler and drier air filters into the region. A
frontal inversion will keep any stratocumulus/cumulus tops no higher
than around 8kft  - couldn`t completely rule out a stray sprinkle
out of these clouds - especially across the north closer to energy
rotating around an upper low stationed over the Lower Great Lakes,
but no accumulating precipitation is expected given the limited
growth zone for hydrometeors.

Surface flow shifts more westerly through the day Saturday in
response to a relatively weak wave emerging from the Central
Rockies. This will allow moisture to start to build back into the
region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes finally kicks out Saturday
night into Sunday dragging a cold front through the region during
the day Sunday yielding some light showers.

In the wake of this feature, drier air is expected into mid-week,
with heat and humidity slowly returning toward the end of the week.
This will yield slowly increasing chances for diurnally driven
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 AM Thursday...

By late morning into the early afternoon most activity will be
confined along the mountains. All sites are forecast go to VFR
by the late morning to the afternoon. One caveat is that
another cold front, although weak, will pass through this late
afternoon and into the evening promoting more shower and storm
activity although will be isolated in nature. This may affect
sites with temporarily MVFR conditions, but by the evening
things will taper down and VFR will then dominate again. There
will be possible fog development along the mountains Friday
morning but not thinking it will be widespread enough to affect
sites other than EKN at this time, however due to recent
rainfall more sites may be affected, therefore placed fog into
the TAFs at all sites except for BKW. Surface flow may be enough
to suppress a lot of fog, but places where it decouples they
will be greater chances for fog.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions will vary and temporarily
bring down sites during frontal passage for the afternoon into
the evening.







EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JZ