656
FXUS61 KRLX 051732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy with a wave of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Another wave of convection ahead of a cold front late tonight.
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as
a cold front approaches from the west this evening, and then crosses
east of the Appalachians by early Thursday morning. Despite of the
lack of heating, the cold front will encounter an unstable environment
with residual CAPE about 800 J/Kg, bulk shear 20 to 30 knots
and PWATs from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Hi-res models brings a cluster
of convection ahead of the cold front reaching the Middle Ohio
valley before midnight. Although severe storms are not expected
at this time, tall skinny soundings suggest very heavy downpours
this evening through tonight. Additional 0.50 to 0.75 inches of
rain can be expected tonight with locally heavier rainfall rates.
Isolated flooding issues may be possible tonight as the area
remains under a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

Behind the cold front, lingering light showers will gradually taper
off across the mountains on Thursday leading to mostly dry weather
thereafter.

The area remains under a slight risk for excessive rainfall
through Thursday morning, so an isolated water issues are not
out of the question.

Expect a muggy night with dewpoints way in the upper 60s. Highs
for Thursday will range from the mid 80s lowlands, into the mid
60s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Wednesday...

A large upper-level low will be spinning over the Great Lakes
Friday. Most of the region should remain dry due to dry air at the
lower levels of the atmosphere, but a spot shower cannot be ruled
out across the far north, closer to the upper-level energy
associated with the low. The lower heights aloft will result in a
cooler than normal day with high temperatures expected to be in the
lower to middle 70s. A comfortably cool night is expected Friday
night with lows in the upper 40s in some of the higher elevations
and the 50s in the lowlands. Saturday should be largely dry with
most of the upper-level energy remaining well to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Wednesday...

The aforementioned upper-level energy is projected to dive southward
Sunday with a cold front following at the surface. This will help
reintroduce shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday. The upper-level
pattern still looks messy heading into the new work week, and the
lingering energy aloft will support chances for convection again on
Monday. Beyond Monday, models diverge and the forecast becomes
uncertain. Some models show a closed upper-level low developing over
the mid-Atlantic, while others show subtle ridging over our area
with an upper-low passing east of the central Great Plains. Given
the unsettled pattern we`ve had recently, we kept chances for
precipitation in the forecast through the middle of next week, but
confidence will remain low until models come into better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 124 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident on radar imagery, as
they develop and lift north across the KY/WV border early this
afternoon. Expect brief periods of IFR conditions along their path
into this evening. Heavy downpours may produce strong gusty winds
with the heavier storms.

Still expecting a lull in precipitation this evening, but convection
returns around midnight. Hi-res CAMs brings a QLCS arriving to
the Mid OH valley around 03Z. This convective line may produce
damaging gusty winds, hail and a tornado or two. Details on this
convective line will be refined before or at the 00Z TAF
issuance. Will code strong gusty winds with storms at PKB, HTS
and CRW for now as uncertain how strong storms could remains as
they move northeast to affect the eastern sites.

Winds will remain south southwest 10 knots or less with few
afternoon gusts up to 18 knots until the frontal passage
Thursday morning. Gusty winds will be higher in and nearby
storms. Winds will veer from the west behind the cold front
early Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Wind gusts may be stronger in strong to
severe storms if they develop.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times through Thursday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ