Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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902 FXUS61 KRLX 031847 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 247 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer with a brief dry spell for tonight and Tuesday, with chances for a shower or storm in the mountains. Showers and storms return Wednesday ahead of a cold front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... Weak high pressure, at the surface and aloft, will provide clearing skies,and calm flow into Tuesday. This conditions will allow for dense fog development, mainly along the river valleys during the overnight hours tonight. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 9 or 10 AM Tuesday morning. Therefore, expect dry weather conditions tonight and for the most part Tuesday. The exception will be weak convection triggered by diurnal heating and available moisture Tuesday afternoon and evening in and nearby the mountains. Mostly sunny skies, high humidity and weak southerly flow will allow for a hot Tuesday afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the low 70s higher elevations. Warm and humid night on tap tonight with dense fog developing mainly along river valleys and temperatures generally in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Monday... Upper-level ridge starts to move off to the east Tuesday night, ahead of a mid to upper level trough advancing from the southwest. As a result, precipitation chances increase from southwest to northeast Tuesday night, becoming more likely by Wednesday afternoon with the disturbance overhead. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to widespread in the afternoon into the night. Severe weather threat still remains low at this time, even with 1,500-2500 J/Kg SBCAPE and a 1,000-2,000 J/Kg MLCAPE protrusion later in the evening. Bulk shear is not optimal (15-20kts)which is likely the reason for lack of severe as storms will not maintain longevity. Some models predict a low-level jet arriving around sunset that will bring an enhanced 30-40kts of shear, enough to help storm maintenance. Analyzing all of this, thinking that strong storms and maybe an isolated severe storm are possible Wednesday with damaging winds, heavy rainfall and even some small hail being the main concerns. Heavy rainfall appears to be of most concern Wednesday as precipitable water values will be in excess of 1.50". Heavy downpours will be likely within stronger showers and thunderstorms and could lead to flash flooding. The area is currently outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday as these hydro concerns remain present, especially urban areas and locations that received an abundance of rainfall over the weekend. Precipitation coverage and chances look to wane sharply after sunset Wednesday night with higher chances remaining across the mountains. Temperatures on Wednesday will be around normal to slightly above with lower 80s across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM Monday... The cold front will be traversing the area early Thursday, but shower/thunderstorm chances will remain through the day as it crosses. Only a few isolated showers or a stray storm remains possible Thursday, as the atmosphere appears to be capped with drier air intruding as this front passes. Was not keen to cut PoPs Thursday afternoon though with temperatures projected to be in the upper 70s and 80s for a large chunk of the area, still any pop-up activity will be short-lived and will not boast any significance. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon behind this front, especially across the ridges. The pattern then looks to remain not quite as warm, with diurnal precipitation chances through the weekend as a behemoth of an upper-level low drops out of Canada and remains just north of the area. Several shortwaves look to move through the upper-level pattern this weekend allowing for chance PoPs each afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures will fall from seasonable upper 70s and 80s down into the 70s across the lowlands, with the mountains staying in the 60s and low 70s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... Abundant cloudiness has diminished afternoon heating some, delaying development of afternoon convection. Expect VCTS to develop at CRW, HTS, EKN and BKW after 19Z. Can not ruled out a showers or storm affecting central and eastern sites through this evening. Expect brief periods of IFR conditions under heavier showers or storms. Any convection will die off around sunset. Guidance suggests skies may clear tonight along with near calm winds. This will allow for dense fog formation mainly along river valleys during the overnight hours. Any dense fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light from the south, becoming calm tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR conditions may vary from the forecast overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ