128
FXUS61 KRLX 040603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and quieter weather for today, cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm. Showers and storms return Wednesday
ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Weak surface high pressure sort of fleets toward the southeast.
The good news is that upper level ridging will still cover the
area and keep most activity from developing. However, we cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm with a 040FT Cu deck
forming in the afternoon. With temperatures climbing into the
mid to upper 80`s this afternoon, plenty of instability will be
available but we do have small caps to keep any agitated Cu from
fully developing.

One can imagine that activity can be still possible which is
why POPs and thunderstorm probability were added into the
forecast, but it should be very isolated in nature. Went with a
blend of Hi-res guidance which equated to slight chance to
chance POPs scattered among the area for this afternoon and
evening. Thereafter, chances increase late tonight, but thinking
it could increase during the late evening as well, in response
to a cold front moving closer to the area with activity out
ahead of it.

Lapse rates are well above environmental and PWATs are around
an inch with DCAPE values very high so there could be some
decent showers, but not thinking anything excessive or ones that
would cause water issues because we are dry in the mid to upper
levels. There is very weak shear and boundary layer flow with
no upper level support so anything that does form will be pulse
like cells that may move fairly slowly. The main focus will
likely be the mountains with smaller caps and elevated heat
effect helping out the development of cell growth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Upper-level ridge starts to move off to the east Tuesday night,
ahead of a mid to upper level trough advancing from the
southwest. As a result, precipitation chances increase from
southwest to northeast Tuesday night, becoming more likely by
Wednesday afternoon with the disturbance overhead.

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to widespread in the
afternoon into the night. Severe weather threat still remains low at
this time, even with 1,500-2500 J/Kg SBCAPE and a 1,000-2,000 J/Kg
MLCAPE protrusion later in the evening. Bulk shear is not optimal
(15-20kts)which is likely the reason for lack of severe as storms
will not maintain longevity. Some models predict a low-level jet
arriving around sunset that will bring an enhanced 30-40kts of
shear, enough to help storm maintenance. Analyzing all of this,
thinking that strong storms and maybe an isolated severe storm are
possible Wednesday with damaging winds, heavy rainfall and even some
small hail being the main concerns.

Heavy rainfall appears to be of most concern Wednesday as
precipitable water values will be in excess of 1.50". Heavy
downpours will be likely within stronger showers and
thunderstorms and could lead to flash flooding. The area is
currently outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
Wednesday as these hydro concerns remain present, especially
urban areas and locations that received an abundance of rainfall
over the weekend.

Precipitation coverage and chances look to wane sharply after
sunset Wednesday night with higher chances remaining across the
mountains. Temperatures on Wednesday will be around normal to
slightly above with lower 80s across the lowlands; 60s and 70s
in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

The cold front will be traversing the area early Thursday, but
shower/thunderstorm chances will remain through the day as it
crosses. Only a few isolated showers or a stray storm remains
possible Thursday, as the atmosphere appears to be capped with
drier air intruding as this front passes. Was not keen to cut
PoPs Thursday afternoon though with temperatures projected to
be in the upper 70s and 80s for a large chunk of the area, still
any pop-up activity will be short-lived and will not boast any
significance. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon
behind this front, especially across the ridges.

The pattern then looks to remain not quite as warm, with
diurnal precipitation chances through the weekend as a behemoth
of an upper-level low drops out of Canada and remains just
north of the area. Several shortwaves look to move through the
upper-level pattern this weekend allowing for chance PoPs each
afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures will fall from
seasonable upper 70s and 80s down into the 70s across the
lowlands, with the mountains staying in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

This morning fog has developed which is affecting CRW/PKB/BKW
and expecting EKN to go down through the morning. Once the fog
lifts around 12-13Z VFR will take back control through the
period. Some Cu will form this afternoon and possibly promote
an isolated shower or storm which may affect a site in
particular the eastern sites. This would bring down VIS
temporarily and CIGs should stay around 040FT or above today.
More activity will come to fruition for Wednesday as showers
and storm will become more prevalent.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Foggy conditions may vary from the
forecast this morning and could get into sites that are not
suppose to go down in VIS.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 06/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ