734
FXUS61 KRLX 060547
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
147 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits by late morning. Another cold frontal passage
this late afternoon promoting isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity. Cooler/drier Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

With frontal passage through the area by late morning chances
of precipitation will taper off and become confined to and along
the mountains. Clouds will clear out behind the front, but will
fill back in slightly for the afternoon when a Cu deck is
forecast to form although will have breaks in cloud coverage.

Looking at soundings, modest shear will be available due to a
relatively weak mid level jet, along with some instability from
getting to the low 80`s across most of the area and along with
breaks in cloud coverage, this all should be enough to develop
and sustain shower activity during the afternoon and evening.
However, thunderstorm activity will have low probability due to
having mid level caps in the soundings along with dry air in
the mid to upper levels.

The feature that will help promote thunderstorm activity will
be another weak frontal boundary parented by the upper level
low just to our north. This boundary of convection will advect
in from the west and drive east through the late afternoon and
into the evening. This will provide enough moisture and lift to
enhance shower activity to thunderstorms although will likely
be isolated in nature and also will likely be low topped weak
storms.

This should be the last thing to affect us from the low to the
north before it kicks out toward the east late tonight into
Friday. Hi-res models support this solution so it was added into
the forecast. Thereafter, clouds clear out nicely and although
surface flow may stay slightly elevated enough to deter some fog
formation, it will likely form along the mountains and may
spill into parts of the lowlands, but not thinking anything
dense as of now.

One last thing to mention is the fact that PWATS are still high
along with low level moisture and lapse rates and not to mention
DCAPE which could help some showers become heavy at times so the
single threat may be isolated flash flooding. This will be
possible under heavy convection, especially under training
conditions, across low lying or flood prone areas, but this
would be very isolated in nature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Wednesday...

A large upper-level low will be spinning over the Great Lakes
Friday. Most of the region should remain dry due to dry air at the
lower levels of the atmosphere, but a spot shower cannot be ruled
out across the far north, closer to the upper-level energy
associated with the low. The lower heights aloft will result in a
cooler than normal day with high temperatures expected to be in the
lower to middle 70s. A comfortably cool night is expected Friday
night with lows in the upper 40s in some of the higher elevations
and the 50s in the lowlands. Saturday should be largely dry with
most of the upper-level energy remaining well to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Wednesday...

The aforementioned upper-level energy is projected to dive southward
Sunday with a cold front following at the surface. This will help
reintroduce shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday. The upper-level
pattern still looks messy heading into the new work week, and the
lingering energy aloft will support chances for convection again on
Monday. Beyond Monday, models diverge and the forecast becomes
uncertain. Some models show a closed upper-level low developing over
the mid-Atlantic, while others show subtle ridging over our area
with an upper-low passing east of the central Great Plains. Given
the unsettled pattern we`ve had recently, we kept chances for
precipitation in the forecast through the middle of next week, but
confidence will remain low until models come into better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

A band of showers is currently passing through which could
bring down VIS/CIGs to MVFR or worse as it passes over a site.
Thunderstorms will be prevalent as this feature passes through.
By late morning into the early afternoon most activity will be
confined along the mountains. All sites are forecast go to VFR
by the late morning to the afternoon. One caveat is that
another cold front, although weak, will pass through this late
afternoon and into the evening promoting more shower and storm
activity although will be isolated in nature. This may affect
sites with temporarily MVFR conditions, but by the evening
things will taper down and VFR will then dominate again. There
will be possible fog development along the mountains Friday
morning but not thinking it will be widespread enough to affect
sites other than EKN at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions will vary and temporarily
bring down sites during frontal passage both this morning and
for the afternoon into the evening.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 06/06/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ