280
FXUS61 KRLX 051602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1202 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy with a wave of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Another wave of convection ahead of a cold front late tonight.
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1130 AM Wednesday...

Radar imagery showing mostly stratiformed precipitation exiting
north of the area late this morning. In other hand, elements of
convection have developed across NE Kentucky, streaming north
northeast into WV at this time. Expect these showers and storms
to affect the area this afternoon and evening. Previous forecast
remains on track.

As of 135 AM Wednesday...

Fairly potential active day ahead as synoptically a
semi-stationary boundary will drape across the northern tier of
the CWA while we are in the warm sector with southerly flow
pumping plenty of moisture into the area. The frontal boundary
will eventually lift north by this evening. PWATs are up near
1.5 inches, the column will be saturated in the mid to upper
levels and long skinny CAPE all tells us that heavy down pours
are possible within shower or storms which will be capable of
pumping down significant amounts of rainfall in as short period
of time. QPF is generally around an inch for today into Thursday
morning and heavy convection will likely add to those totals in
certain areas, especially west of the Ohio River.

WPC has placed us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall so an
isolated water issue is not out of the question. There will not
be too much instability (greatest instability likely along the
Ohio River and west of there) as cloud coverage will stay fairly
high today, however there will be enough to support storm
activity area-wide. Some storms could be strong to severe
across the Ohio River and west of there. SPC has place that area
under a marginal risk for severe with the main threat being
damaging wind, hail and we cannot rule out a tornado or two.

Outside the threats we are looking at a warm although guidance had
much higher temperatures than in the current forecast which was
lowered by a few degrees due to the amount of cloud coverage
and rainfall expected. Hi-res models imply there will be a wave
of convection during the afternoon and another wave ahead of the
cold front to our west late tonight. Overnight lows will be
fairly high with clouds suppressing any radiational cooling
along with fairly decent mixing at the surface through the
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Wednesday...

A large upper-level low will be spinning over the Great Lakes
Friday. Most of the region should remain dry due to dry air at the
lower levels of the atmosphere, but a spot shower cannot be ruled
out across the far north, closer to the upper-level energy
associated with the low. The lower heights aloft will result in a
cooler than normal day with high temperatures expected to be in the
lower to middle 70s. A comfortably cool night is expected Friday
night with lows in the upper 40s in some of the higher elevations
and the 50s in the lowlands. Saturday should be largely dry with
most of the upper-level energy remaining well to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Wednesday...

The aforementioned upper-level energy is projected to dive southward
Sunday with a cold front following at the surface. This will help
reintroduce shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday. The upper-level
pattern still looks messy heading into the new work week, and the
lingering energy aloft will support chances for convection again on
Monday. Beyond Monday, models diverge and the forecast becomes
uncertain. Some models show a closed upper-level low developing over
the mid-Atlantic, while others show subtle ridging over our area
with an upper-low passing east of the central Great Plains. Given
the unsettled pattern we`ve had recently, we kept chances for
precipitation in the forecast through the middle of next week, but
confidence will remain low until models come into better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 AM Wednesday...

All sites will be under VFR with some occasional MVFR CIGs
until this afternoon where a wave of convection will likely
start up and cause some VIS/CIG restrictions periodically. CIGs
should stay relatively elevated in height, but could sneak down
to high end MVFR at times under thunderstorm or shower activity.
There may be a slight lull in the evening, but then by late
tonight another wave of convection ahead of a cold front will
cause more restrictions to VIS and CIGs. Winds will stay
elevated and south-southwest for the period with gust in the
teens this afternoon and evening possible as well as with
frontal passage by Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times through Thursday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ/JZ