159
FXUS61 KRLX 022348
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
748 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers through this evening. Warmer with a brief dry spell for
most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 748 PM Sunday...

Freshened up temperatures this evening to reflect slightly
cooler than anticipated readings heading into the overnight
hours. Low dewpoint depression spread, light surface winds, and
recent rainfall from today will be conducive for previously
mentioned low level stratus and fog development heading into the
early morning hours.

Also reconstructed POPs for tonight to remain on track with
latest radar trends. Still seeing isolated showers, and a quick
burst of lightning from time to time, travel across the
foothills and mountains, with some other convection attempting
to press in from the west. Still think this will quickly wane
with the loss of daytime heating.

As of 130 PM Sunday...

Unsettled weather will continue this afternoon into early this
evening with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
with the best chances along the periphery of some modestly enhanced
H850 across the southern half of the forecast area. Activity should
wane with loss of heating this evening, with only isolated activity
in the vicinity of the mountains. With recent rainfall and rather
dead flow overnight, will see at least patchy fog developing heading
into Sunday morning, although remaining low level cloudiness should
keep it from becoming too thick outside of the valleys.

Flow remains weak through a bulk of the day Monday with daytime
heating supporting just isolated pop-up afternoon shower and
thunderstorms - most locations will stay dry however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and
southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry
conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a
shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide
support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With
PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the
lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to
watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now,
WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for
day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to
weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday
will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can
trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high
PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead
of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However,
that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High
temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.

Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday,
models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great
Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for
showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures
somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near
80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even
cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of
sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep
some clouds around.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 748 PM Sunday...

Isolated showers and storms passing through the central and
eastern parts of the area will quickly wane in the next few
hours with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight forecast
remains probable for a combination of low level stratus and fog
development across all TAF sites. A gradual decline into IFR was
included with this issuance for early Monday morning. Low level
restrictions will quickly vanish after daybreak with the help of
mixing, returning all sites to VFR. Winds will remain generally
light and variable through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of vsby/ceiling restrictions
may vary from the forecast late tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 06/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK