Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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982 FXUS61 KRLX 280624 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tuesday and Wednesday will bring some additional shower and thunderstorm activity, before drying out Thursday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Tuesday... A shortwave is projected to glide past the area, bringing potential for showers and a few storms across the northern half of the CWA during the morning. While the wave departs to the northeast this afternoon, enough instability and shear may be present to support some additional convection during the afternoon and evening. A lull in activity should occur after sundown, then the next shortwave trough approaches from the northwest and reintroduces precipitation chances overnight. High temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than the past couple of days, topping out in the 70s for the lowlands and 60s to low 70s along the mountains. Tonight will be seasonable, with lows in the low to mid 50s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 50s along the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Key Points: * Showers and storms expected at times through Wednesday, with dry conditions thereafter. * Cool temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday as weak upper waves periodically pivot through a broad scale upper trough across the eastern CONUS. Shower/storm potential (SCT to Numerous) will peak during Wednesday afternoon/evening courtesy of diurnal heating, but ISOL activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning remains possible given some upper forcing across the region. The chance for rain will quickly taper Wednesday night as drier air and high pressure begin to build into the region, with dry conditions then persisting through the remainder of the period. While a few strong storms are possible on Wednesday, the severe threat in general remains low. High temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday will be seasonably chilly - upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands, with mid 50s to mid 60s in the mountains. A sun/cloud mix on Wednesday will give way to mostly sunny skies on Thursday. It will be chilly at night, particularly Thursday night, with the potential for frost Friday morning in the typical mountain valley cold spots. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... Key Points: * High pressure provides dry weather on Friday into the first half of the weekend. * Isolated showers/storms return on Sunday into Monday. * Gradual warming trend late week into early next week. Surface high pressure remains in control on Friday as it begins to gradually traverse the region from northwest to southeast into the start of the weekend. This results in a beautiful end to the work week amid mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures - highs in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands. After a dry and cool Friday night, temperatures warm ~ 5-10 degrees on Saturday courtesy of return flow. The chance for isolated showers/storms returns on Sunday into Monday as moisture advection continues with southwest low/mid level mean layer flow. In the absence of any large scale forcing mechanism, activity at this point generally looks to be diurnally driven, with PoPs capped at 30-40% across the region for the time being. High temperatures are progged to return to the mid 80s by Monday for the lowlands. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 AM Tuesday... While VFR should prevail for much of the area overnight, brief periods of MVFR could occur courtesy of lower clouds present along the mountains. Patchy valley fog will also be possible in a few locations before sunrise. A passing disturbance is expected to bring cloud cover and some showers after 12Z, then additional isolated to scattered showers and storms could flare up during the afternoon. Most activity is expected to occur to the north near PKB, CKB, and EKN. While VFR is generally expected during the day, occasional restrictions could be possible in storms. A lull in activity should occur in the evening before another wave brings increasing cloud cover and chances of more precipitation near the end, or beyond, the valid TAF period. Light flow is expected to increase and become westerly during the day, with 15-25kt gusts possible through the afternoon. Winds should relax again beyond 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog that could affect a few terminals, such as CRW and EKN. Timing/extent of convection during the day may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/28/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and storms on Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...JLB