202
FXUS61 KRLX 021541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system brings rain showers today. Warmer with a
brief dry spell for most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled
weather returns by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1050 AM Sunday...

Tweaked PoPs to better reflect current radar trends.

As of 625 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track.

As of 235 AM Sunday...

A weak low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today.
Timing and coverage will be largely tied to two mid-level short
wave troughs, one crossing early this morning already bring
showers across the middle Ohio Valley, and the other crossing
this afternoon in concert with diurnal heating.

Diurnal heating will be limited, keeping CAPE narrow. Together
with modest shear, any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon
and evening are not expected to be severe, and the best chance
for a thunderstorm at all is across southern portions of the
area.

While PW values increase to around 1.5 inches this morning on a
40 kt h850 theta e feed, the feed weakens today, and weak
forcing will limit the amount of moisture we will be able to
squeeze out despite the efficient warm rain process.
Nonetheless, locally heavy downpours are possible.

With flow limited to 5 to n10 kts through the mid levels,
stratus and areas of post-rain fog are likely to settle in
overnight tonight.

The rather cloudy regime will coral temperatures with a 15
degree bracket this period, inside the normals for this time of
year, below normal highs today and above normal lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and
southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry
conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a
shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide
support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With
PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the
lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to
watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now,
WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for
day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to
weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday
will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can
trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high
PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead
of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However,
that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High
temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.

Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday,
models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great
Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for
showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures
somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near
80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even
cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of
sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep
some clouds around.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 AM Sunday...

While a sort of double-barrel low pressure system brings a
couple rounds of rain showers today, one ongoing this morning,
and then another this afternoon, the most impactful flight
restrictions will not come until overnight tonight, when
stratocumulus/stratus, and mist/fog will lower ceiling and
visibility to MVFR and then IFR. MVFR stratocu is also forecast
at times along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, today and across the
north, CKB and EKN, later this afternoon into tonight, before
it lowers farther overnight.

A thunderstorm is possible with the second round of showers this
afternoon and evening, mainly south. Brief MVFR is possible
within heavier showers today, while brief IFR is possible within
any thunderstorm.

light and variable to calm surface flow early this morning will
become light, mainly south today, and then light and variable
to calm again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this
morning will become light southwest today, and then light west
to northwest overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible
within heavier showers today, while brief IFR VSBY restrictions
are possible within any thunderstorms. Lowering of ceiling and
visibility overnight tonight may vary. This is a lower
confidence portion of the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM