907
FXUS61 KRLX 020635
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
235 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring rain showers today. Warmer with
a brief dry spell for most on Monday, before unsettled weather
returns by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Sunday...

A weak low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today.
Timing and coverage will be largely tied to two mid-level short
wave troughs, one crossing early this morning already bring
showers across the middle Ohio Valley, and the other crossing
this afternoon in concert with diurnal heating.

Diurnal heating will be limited, keeping CAPE narrow. Together
with modest shear, any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon
and evening are not expected to be severe, and the best chance
for a thunderstorm at all is across southern portions of the
area.

While PW values increase to around 1.5 inches this morning on a
40 kt h850 theta e feed, the feed weakens today, and weak
forcing will limit the amount of moisture we will be able to
squeeze out despite the efficient warm rain process.
Nonetheless, locally heavy downpours are possible.

With flow limited to 5 to n10 kts through the mid levels,
stratus and areas of post-rain fog are likely to settle in
overnight tonight.

The rather cloudy regime will coral temperatures with a 15
degree bracket this period, inside the normals for this time of
year, below normal highs today and above normal lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

Precipitation tapers off in the usual west to east fashion Sunday
night. For Monday, an azores high pressure center encroaches on the
Eastern Seaboard as another weaker center builds in from the north
forcing a backdoor cold front through the area.

As a result, the area remains mostly dry on Monday with high
pressure around, outside of the chance for some diurnal
shower/storm activity across the mountains due to the
aforementioned cold front being nearby. This activity will
quickly wane after peak daytime heating is lost around sunset.

A warming trend will also start with afternoon temperatures
shooting into the 80s across the lowlands; 60s to upper 70s in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Warming trend continues Tuesday with high pressure around.
Temperatures will be above normal, but stereotypical for a
sultry summer day; upper 80s to around 90 across the usual warm
spots in the lowlands.

There remains a chance for some afternoon showers or
thunderstorms due to a shortwave that will move through the
ridge pattern. A few long-range models suggest it will be dry
Tuesday morning, but the ridge looks `dirty` through the entire
day, and with the forecasted hot temperatures opted to keep
slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast. This could change
with future forecast packages though.

Looking out further, seeing a cold front that will pass through
Wednesday into Thursday. Subsequently, temperatures will cool
off a few degrees, but mid 80s could still be common across the
lowlands. A broad upper-level low then looks to drop down out
of the Great Lakes on Friday going into the weekend. Kept
chance PoPs around as it could be unsettled for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM Sunday...

A low pressure system will bring rain showers at times today,
but the most impactful flight restrictions will not come until
overnight tonight, when lowering stratocumulus and mist will
lower ceiling and visibility to MVFR near or just after the end
of the TAF period, 06Z Monday, with IFR ceiling and visibility
in stratus and fog likely thereafter. MVFR stratocu is also
forecast at times along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, today and
across the north, CKB and EKN, later this afternoon through
tonight.

A thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening, mainly
south. Brief MVFR is possible within heavier showers today,
while brief IFR is possible within any thunderstorm.

light and variable to calm surface flow early this morning will
become light, mainly south today, and then light and variable
to calm again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this
morning will become light southwest today. As such, a brief
gust up to to 20 kts cannot be ruled out early this morning, as
showers encroach from the west on top of an initially rather dry
lower atmosphere.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible
within heavier showers today, while brief IFR VSBY restrictions
are possible within any thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 06/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in post-rain stratus and fog overnight tonight and
early Monday morning. Brief IFR conditions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM