150
FXUS61 KRLX 011706
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
106 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through this evening, rain chances increase late tonight
into Sunday. Brief dry spell on Monday with unsettled weather
returning by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure continues
to shift east through the remainder of the day today into this
evening allowing a plume of Gulf enhanced moisture to shift east
into our forecast area this evening into Sunday.

Through the evening and first half of the overnight any radar
returns will probably struggle to translate to accumulating rainfall
at the surface with initially dry low levels and light precipitation
rates. Instability will begin to build toward daybreak and peak late
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with increasing chances for
accumulating rain, and perhaps some pockets of heavier rain by late
in the morning Sunday given precipitable water values near 1.5
inches, deep but skinny instability profiles, and deep warm cloud
depths. Given recent dry conditions and the fully greened state of
vegetation, not expecting much in the way of water issues unless a
heavier downpour persists over a more built up area.&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

This period starts with a weak surface low passing just toward
our north. This feature will drag a weak frontal boundary
through which will be enough to support shower and thunderstorm
activity, however looking at soundings with the lack of shear
and instability, we are likely looking at sub-severe storms.
PWATs have increased along with long skinny CAPE coming into
the equation which will support more rainfall and possibly heavy
downpours and thankfully DCAPE is very low which will decrease
the chances for downbursts.

The frontal boundary will pass by nightfall and then from there
on weak high pressure both at the surface and loft will build
in from the west for a short period on Monday. Unfortunately the
weak high pressure will allow for some diurnal activity as far
as shower and storms are concern. This will likely be confined
to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect although we
cannot rule out a possible storm elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

This period starts with a weak surface low passing just toward
our north. This feature will drag a weak frontal boundary
through which will be enough to support shower and thunderstorm
activity, however looking at soundings with the lack of shear
and instability, we are likely looking at sub-severe storms.
PWATs have increased along with long skinny CAPE coming into
the equation which will support more rainfall and possibly heavy
downpours and thankfully DCAPE is very low which will decrease
the chances for downbursts.

The frontal boundary will pass by nightfall and then from there
on weak high pressure both at the surface and loft will build
in from the west for a short period on Monday. Unfortunately the
weak high pressure will allow for some diurnal activity as far
as shower and storms are concern. This will likely be confined
to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect although we
cannot rule out a possible storm elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Warming trend continues Tuesday with high pressure around.
Temperatures will be above normal, but stereotypical for a
sultry summer day; upper 80s to around 90 across the usual warm
spots in the lowlands.

There remains a chance for some afternoon showers or
thunderstorms due to a shortwave that will move through the
ridge pattern. A few long-range models suggest it will be dry
Tuesday morning, but the ridge looks `dirty` through the entire
day, and with the forecasted hot temperatures opted to keep
slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast. This could change
with future forecast packages though.

Looking out further, seeing a cold front that will pass through
Wednesday into Thursday. Subsequently, temperatures will cool
off a few degrees, but mid 80s could still be common across the
lowlands. A broad upper-level low then looks to drop down out
of the Great Lakes on Friday going into the weekend. Kept
chance PoPs around as it could be unsettled for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours as generally
virga or very light precipitation begins to spread over the region
tonight. Cloud bases will progressively lower to near MVFR near or
after daybreak with chances for heavier showers including at least
some potential for embedded thunder increasing toward the end of
this TAF period. Overall confidence in thunderstorms affecting any
given field is rather low with fairly meager instability through
18Z, so will code only -SHRA for now.

Winds generally southerly less than 10KTs, except gusty and erratic
near any showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated thunderstorms possible prior to
18Z.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday afternoon, then again at times late Tuesday into
Thursday. IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps
fog, late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/LTC
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JP