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FXUS61 KRLX 031702
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
102 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer with a brief dry spell for most today and Tuesday, with
chances for a shower or storm in the mountains. Showers and
storms return Wednesday ahead of a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM Monday...

Abundant cloudiness will limit afternoon convection today. Have
delayed chances for showers or storms development starting at 3
PM into the evening. Otherwise, it will remain dry through
tonight. Sent a quick update accordingly. Rest of forecast
remains on track.

As of 145 AM Monday...

Relatively settled day with some exceptions. It may be partly
unsettled this afternoon due to the elevated heat effect across
the mountains which will promote some shower and storm
potential during the afternoon and into the evening. Outside the
mountains, the lowlands should stay relatively dry, but cannot
rule out a rogue shower or storm, but probability was too low to
add into the forecast at this time. Soundings look fairly good
with plenty of instability, high DCAPE and High PWATs to support
diurnal convection, but a small cap may suppress the potential
for thunderstorm activity outside the mountains.

Most of the instability will be wasted due to weak surface high
pressure and ridging aloft. Hi-res and short term models have
most of the potential activity across the mountains except for
the NAM12 and NAM4K, therefore took a blend of the previous
forecast and newer guidance along with making some custom
tweaks for POPs and thunderstorm probability to account for the
NAM12 and NAM4K being aggressive. However, that is a hint that
there may be some rogue storms outside the higher elevations,
therefore confidence is slightly low for placement of storm
potential under this semi-dirty high pressure system.

Made a model blend for temperatures which equated to about a
degree or two lower than central guidance for the daytime highs
and lows. Mid 70`s to low 80`s are expected for the lowlands and
upper 60`s to mid 70`s for the mountains. For lows tomorrow
morning expect around low 60`s for the lowlands and mid to upper
50`s for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

Tuesday brings warmer, mainly dry weather, as surface high
pressure gives way to southerly flow, and mid-upper level
ridging crosses. Elevated heat source diurnal convection is
again possible over the mountains.

The first of a series of weak southern stream short wave
troughs ejecting out ahead of a large mid-upper level system
over the west-central portion of the continent may bring showers
and thunderstorms into the area as early as overnight Tuesday
night, with a slight chance depicted. The greater likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday, particularly
during the afternoon and evening, as the second in the series of
short waves crosses in concert with diurnal heating.

Despite the favored timing, clouds and showers early in the day
limit heating, and 0-6/0-8 km bulk shear is forecast in the
15-25 kt range, perhaps climbing above 30 kts after sunset
Wednesday night. Thunderstorms could be strong Wednesday
afternoon amid 2500-3500 J/Kg surface-based CAPE well through
the hail growth layer, with the equilibrium level all the way up
around h15, but severe weather potential is low unless we could
realize better shear before sunset.

PW values climb to the neighborhood of 1.75 inches Wednesday
afternoon, about as high as it gets in this area this time of
year, so heavy downpours are also possible, with a local high
water threat wherever heavier thunderstorms hit urban or other
low lying, sensitive areas.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases west to east after
sunset Wednesday night, particularly as one last southern
stream short wave and a surface trough/weak cold front cross.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures, with
negligible if any cooling with the trough/frontal passage
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

The cold front will be traversing the area early Thursday, but
shower/thunderstorm chances will remain through the day as it
crosses. Only a few isolated showers or a stray storm remains
possible Thursday, as the atmosphere appears to be capped with
drier air intruding as this front passes. Was not keen to cut
PoPs Thursday afternoon though with temperatures projected to
be in the upper 70s and 80s for a large chunk of the area, still
any pop-up activity will be short-lived and not of any
significance. Winds will be breezy at times in the afternoon
behind this front, especially across the ridges.

The pattern then looks to remain not quite as warm, with
diurnal precipitation chances through the weekend as a behemoth
of an upper-level low drops out of Canada and remains just
north of the area. Several shortwaves look to move through the
upper-level pattern this weekend allowing for chance PoPs each
afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures will fall from
seasonable upper 70s and 80s down into the 70s across the
lowlands, with the mountains staying in the 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 AM Monday...

Outside some fog this morning, which will break up soon. VFR
will then takeover by late morning with chances of showers and
storms near EKN/BKW, but probability is fairly low. We cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm elsewhere but again the
probability is low. A Cu field will likely develop during the
afternoon, but will be more heavily noticeable along the
mountains. Winds will be very light due to high pressure
slackening the pressure gradient. Another good opportunity for
fog development once again tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS restrictions may vary from the
forecast this morning.







EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ