616
FXUS61 KRLX 240131
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
931 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the
weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 PM Monday...

Updated PoPs to keep accurate timing and location of showers
and thunderstorms. Currently seeing some thunderstorms across
the southern coalfields and mountains of WV and VA with a
considerable amount of lightning. These storms are moving from
southwest to northeast ahead of a stalling, weak cold front.

Expecting these taper off some over the next few hours, but
another round is expected to move in early tomorrow morning
before sunrise, with an afternoon round expected. Storms could
be strong to severe in the afternoon, though the amount of
showers that move through early in the morning will determine
how the afternoon severe potential will stack up tomorrow.

There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather across
most of the area, with a slight risk across portions of our KY
counties, southern coalfields of WV, Buchanan and Dickenson
counties in SWVA.

As of 140 PM Monday...

Frontal boundary snaking across parts of the area will lift
north tonight as a warm front as low pressure across the lower
MS Valley tracks northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday.
Isolated showers for the remainder of the afternoon, most
notably across the mountains where a rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out.

Some of the model solutions are quick to bring in shower/thunder
chances late tonight from the west as the aforementioned frontal
boundary lingers off to the west. Given the developing
southeast flow overnight, I tended to favor the drier solution
for the area. Expect low stratus and river valley fog to form
with dense fog possible should the sky remain mostly cloud free.
This is a low confidence forecast all things considered.

Upper trof across the upper Midwest will energize this boundary
on Tuesday. Upper level jet dynamics combined with surface lift
along and ahead of the front should give us the best chances
for widespread shower thunderstorm activity we`ve had in recent
memory. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms
should some surface heating be realized, most notably across
western zones. This would be dependent on the extent of any
morning showers. In addition, some southwest to northeast
training of activity is possible which would give some localized
rainfall amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

Period begins with deep southwesterly flow across the area, with an
upper low/trough axis just to our west. Shortwaves moving through
the flow early Wednesday will keep conditions unsettled across the
area. However, the upper low will gradually move south and deepen
through the day Wednesday into Thursday,  with some of the moisture
and lift associated with it remaining south and west of our area,
with a decrease in shower activity for us. Although not overly warm
during the period, conditions will remain muggy, particularly for
this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Monday...

Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A
tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region,
and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There
still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and
associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution
would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with
the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in
southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance
for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact
path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the
pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low,
particularly across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 750 PM Monday...

A front across the area will allow for some showers and
thunderstorms this evening into early overnight hours. This will
be more confined across the southern half of the forecast area.
Otherwise, VFR will remain the main flight category until
expected dense valley fog and some mountain low stratus forms.
There is still some question as to how restrictive it will be,
but IFR and LIFR VIS/CIGs seems likely across any of the usual
sites or any that received rainfall.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive tomorrow
morning from southwest to northeast, with some stronger to
severe thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. Hail and strong,
gusty winds could accompany any thunderstorms.

Winds will be light and west to north tonight. Flow will become
more southwesterly tomorrow and could be breezy at times with
gusts between 12-15kts. Winds will vary and could be erratic in
and around any thunderstorms.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and dense valley fog
restrictions may vary tonight. Timing of showers and
thunderstorms may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 09/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30/SL
NEAR TERM...30/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC