498
FXUS61 KRLX 260617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front today. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1035 PM Tuesday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 438 PM Tuesday...

Radar imagery shows ragged convection decaying as it enters the
Mid OH valley late this afternoon. There will be a lull in
convection until the next cluster of storms currently north
central KY. This activity will approach northeast KY around
00Z, or just cross south of this area by that hour.

Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers have refreshed temperatures
across northern southeast OH and western WV this afternoon, lowering
them about 14 degrees. Adjusted hourly temperatures and
dewpoints accordingly.

As of 1235 PM Tuesday...

Convection from weakening MCS over the midwest this morning is
moving into the area. So far much of this has remained sub
severe, and bulk of any severe is still anticipated to remain to
our west. Latest SPC outlook for day 1 still has just a few of
our SE Ohio counties in a marginal, and this seems reasonable
given latest trends.

Otherwise, should be a bit of a lull in the activity later this
evening and the first part of tonight, however, convection
looks to reinvigorate overnight across the north out ahead of a
cold front and passing shortwave. This should affect our
northern zones late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Severe
threat with this activity looks to be rather low at this point,
but not a non zero risk, and heavy rain is expected.

After the Wednesday morning activity, showers and storms will
redevelop again during the afternoon and evening hours out ahead of
an approaching mid level shortwave trough and the aforementioned
cold front. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with a
damaging wind threat, possibly a small tornado threat also, and much
of this activity looks to develop towards the end of the near term,
and into the short term period. However, there still remains
uncertainty as to any effects morning convection will play in the
severity of afternoon storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain
behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others
indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs,
with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures can be expected for Thursday.

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, although most of the region will
remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through late Saturday
night into Sunday, with better agreement on the timing than
previous runs.

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models have some disagreement on the amount of cooler
air for Monday, with temperatures either more seasonable or
possibly even below normal.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Wednesday...

Warm front approaching from the west lofting some clouds and
moisture over the area this morning, most notably across the
southern half of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms could
form as the warm front moves through early this morning, but
expecting a lull in the activity by ~12Z with CIGs forecasted
to scatter and lift some ahead of an afternoon round.

Scattered thunderstorms and showers will arrive this afternoon
as the atmosphere becomes unstable ahead of a cold front,
anytime after ~16Z, as a cold front approaches from the west.
MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in and around this activity.

Light to calm SW`rly flow expected this morning. Winds will pick
up after sunrise with mixing, then shift out of the west this
afternoon with the FROPA. Winds could be breezy at times during
the day and especially in and around showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms through the day may differ from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 06/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms today into tonight, and
again on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC