Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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644 FXUS61 KRLX 111606 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1206 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot and muggy to end the week and start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 610 AM Tuesday... No changes needed this morning. Patchy fog has developed in the wake of clearing low level clouds, mainly west of the Ohio River. This will dissipate in the next couple hours. As of 120 AM Tuesday... A quiet pattern is expected through near term as high pressure slowly slides east. The main concern this morning will be any fog formation where the low level cloud deck can manage to clear as surface winds drop to near zero, coverage should be patchy at best. Generally think this will be limited to the northwestern half of the forecast area and perhaps some more fog prone river valleys across the south. Tonight, as high pressure moves even closer overhead, should see some better chances for more widespread valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Tuesday... Dry weather, courtesy of dominating high pressure, prevails through the forecast period. Height rises will yield a daily increase in afternoon high temperatures, with some spots in the lowlands cresting to 90 degrees on Thursday. Coupled with increasing moisture, humidity levels will also give rise to muggier conditions for the second half of the work week. A weak cold front is progged to encroach from the north late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Light showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will begin to impede on our northwestern zones by the conclusion of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1205 PM Tuesday... Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures will take hold for Saturday behind the front. Conditions will become increasingly hot and humid by the end of the week into early next week, as upper heights build, and a warm front moves through the region, with dew points surging across the area, possibly into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This combined with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands, particularly on Monday, will result in heat indices nearing 100. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity looks to increase across the area during the period. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 AM Tuesday... BKN-OVC 025-035 ceilings slowly work their way out of the forecast area to the east by late morning with mainly clear skies expected thereafter. Light winds and clear skies overnight will yield valley fog. Winds remain light, favoring a northerly direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight tonight could be more dense than currently advertised. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are forecast. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JP