370
FXUS61 KRLX 221750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level
ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and
storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Hot and humid weather will continue today with little relief
expected overnight. A cold front will approach from the west
Sunday, and ahead of it, clouds will approach from the northwest
and winds will become breezier out of the southwest.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening
ahead of the front. Areas along and north of the Ohio River are
positioned in a slight risk for severe weather with the rest of
the area placed in a marginal risk for severe weather. The
excessive rainfall risk will be marginal Sunday, but because of
how dry the ground has been lately, flooding can be avoided if
thunderstorms move quickly enough. However, training
thunderstorms can still produce localized flooding.

Reviewing the severe risk, LCLs are expected to be around 1,500
meters and 0-6km bulk shear will only be at 20-25 knots.
Therefore, tornadoes are not much of a concern. A quick spin up
cannot be ruled out, mainly across northern WV or southeast OH
in more favorable wind shear. Freezing levels will be anywhere
from 15,000-16,000 feet AGL, and few storms could potentially
grow tall enough to produce marginally severe hail. We believe
the main concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts with any
storms late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Sunday will be hot and humid once again as surface high pressure
remains underneath increasingly neutral flow aloft due to the
high pressure center pushing off to the Southwest CONUS.
Temperatures will be about 3-6 degrees less hot than Saturday,
due to an approaching system from the west. As a result, some
high-level clouds will begin moving in throughout the morning,
gradually lowering during the afternoon. Temperatures across the
lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat
indices in the same ballpark. The mountains however, will range
between the mid 70s (highest elevations) to the upper 80s
(lowest elevations and mountain valleys).

A quick-hitting cold front will then approach from the midwest by
afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on the door of our
western periphery. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
increase from west to east over the course of the afternoon. PoPs
increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening
as the cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms, a
few could be severe, will pack damaging winds, some small hail
and heavy rainfall as models project precipitable water values
between 1.50" and 2.00". CAPE looks to be between 1,000 and
3,000 J/KG ahead of the front in the afternoon with sfc to 500MB
shear approaching 40 kts.

Some localized to isolated water issues could be possible with the
heaviest downpours within these storms, but not overly concerned
with flooding as the area could use the rain. Both a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms has been hoisted for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

High pressure provides dry weather most, if not all, of the day
Tuesday.

With the upper level ridge associated with the current heat
wave shunted off to the deep south/southwestern U.S. next week,
west to northwest mid-upper level flow with embedded short wave
troughs/convective complexes traverse the area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night through Wednesday. With low level south to
southwest gradient flow behind exiting high pressure feeding
increasing warmth and moisture back into the area, rounds of
showers and thunderstorms become possible Tuesday night, and
then remain so until a deep enough short wave trough pushes a
cold front through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

High pressure sails by to the north of the area Thursday night,
and then gives way to low level return flow beneath building
heights, as the ridge expands back over the area, to bring a
dry end to the week.

Central guidance reflects the return of modest heat Tuesday and
Wednesday, interrupted Thursday before returning amid the
building heights to end the week. Lowlands forecast highs are
lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s, still a little
above normal for Thursday, then up to the mid 90s for Friday and
Saturday. Afternoon dew points are forecast to be down around
60 on Tuesday, and then mainly in the mid to upper 60s for the
balance of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 134 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will continue through the day with partly to
mostly sunny skies. An afternoon thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out in the mountains this afternoon, but chances were low enough
to leave out any mention in the TAFs. IFR dense fog is possible
overnight in KEKN. Otherwise, conditions will return to VFR
again areawide for the first half of Sunday with increasing high
clouds from the west. Breezy southwest winds are expected
Sunday ahead of a cold front, will will arrive Sunday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon thunderstorms may or may not
effect TAF sites in the mountains this afternoon. Fog may or may
not develop at KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in fog overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMC