582
FXUS61 KRNK 251903
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the region on Wednesday will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Hot and humid weather is expected through the end of the week,
with a heat index around 100 in the Virginia piedmont on
Wednesday. A low probability of thunderstorms remains in the
forecast for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

    - Dry and less humid tonight
    - Hot and humid weather returns Wednesday

Scattered cumulus had developed over the region this afternoon.
This cloud cover will erode with the loss of heating once the
sun sets, but higher clouds from thunderstorms in the Ohio will
spread into the mountains.

As surface high pressure weakens, low level flow becomes southwest
and brings back surface dew points in the 60s and warmer 850 mb
temperatures. The temperature/dew point combination will result
in a heat index from the upper 80s to around 100 Wednesday
afternoon. A bit too much residual cloud cover in the morning
and cumulus development in the afternoon to reach the full
potential of the warmer airmass. Kept the maximum temperature in
the mid to upper 90s in the piedmont.

Bufkit forecast soundings showed Convective Available Potential
Energy in the 1500-2000 J/kg range in the afternoon. Based on the
SPC HREF ensemble...a majority of the thunderstorm development
will be after 18Z/2PM. CSU machine learning and SPC HREF showed
the potential for strong to damaging winds in central northern
Virginia late in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered storms each afternoon

2: Generally above normal temperatures

A cold front will move through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday which
will allow scattered showers and storms to form especially in the
Piedmont. This doesn`t have the look of a blockbuster event, but a
few of the storms could have some strong winds. Slightly cooler air
will follow the front with high pressure accompanying it over the OH
valley. This will turn our dominant flow east as we sit on the south
side of the high. Moisture advection will again lead to scattered
showers on Friday, mostly along the ridges and mountains where
orography will give the additional oomph needed to cause organized
convection.

Temperatures won`t be as hot as they were last weekend, but we will
still see temperatures above normal in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Staying hot through the weekend

2: Front brings more storms Sunday/Monday

On Saturday a subtropical ridge begins to reform itself and take
control of the synoptic pattern. This is a recipe for continued hot
weather. With a Bermuda high also in place to our east, there will
be warm air advection aplenty. Heat indices in the Piedmont and
southside could break over 100F again Saturday  afternoon.

Meanwhile a front will be rounding the northern side of the ridge,
making its passage through southwest VA later on Sunday, potentially
slowing and lingering into Monday. A ridge setup bringing a wave
from northwest to southeast over the East Coast can be indicative of
a potential QLCS. Too far to discuss impacts with any certainty, but
as we get into the forecast time range in which we can analyze it
with high-res models, other indicators will be assessed. Dry high
pressure and a post frontal environment should cool things back down
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...

Scattered VFR cumulus had developed over the region this
afternoon. This cloud cover will erode with the loss of heating
once the sun sets, but higher clouds from thunderstorms in the
Ohio will spread into the mountains.

As surface high pressure weakens, low level flow becomes southwest
and brings back surface dew points in the 60s and warmer 850 mb
temperatures. Bufkit forecast soundings showed Convective
Available Potential Energy in the 1500-2000 J/kg range in the
afternoon. Based on the SPC HREF ensemble...a majority of the
thunderstorm development will be after the 18Z/2PM end of the
TAF forecast period.

Average confidence in ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered thunderstorms with potential MVFR ceiling and
visibility, along with strong wind gusts, are expected Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning.

VFR conditions expected through much of the week, with the only
exception being areas of valley fog in the early morning hours,

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again each
afternoon and evening Thursday through Saturday.

A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG